Russian losses
Executive summary
Multiple open-source trackers and repeated updates from the Ukrainian General Staff place cumulative Russian military losses in Ukraine at just over 1.2 million personnel by January 2026, while equipment counts show massive attrition in tanks, AFVs, artillery and drones; independent trackers and Western analysts corroborate large-scale losses though they differ sharply on methodology and magnitude [1] [2] [3] [4]. Conflicting definitions—killed versus killed-and-wounded, confirmed names versus modeled totals—and competing incentives in wartime reporting mean any single headline figure should be treated as an estimate within a wide band rather than a precise census [5] [6].
1. What the headline numbers say about personnel losses
Public summaries circulated by the Ukrainian General Staff and aggregators report cumulative Russian combat losses since February 24, 2022 in excess of 1.2 million personnel, with multiple daily updates showing increases into January 2026—examples include figures of roughly 1,208,970, 1,216,930, 1,221,940 and 1,235,060 in different briefings and translations of Ukrainian data [2] [7] [8] [3]. Media outlets republishing those official tallies present them as killed and wounded combined, and separate reporting highlights spikes such as Kyiv’s claim of over 33,000 Russian personnel lost in December 2025 based on confirmed visual cases [9] [10].
2. Equipment losses: tanks, AFVs, artillery, drones
Aggregated equipment tallies accompanying Ukrainian updates and independent trackers show extraordinarily high material attrition: tank losses in the order of ten thousand plus, AFVs and artillery in the tens of thousands, and a drone phenomenon producing very large counts of UAVs destroyed—MinFin lists roughly 11,566 tanks, 23,914 AFVs, 36,261 artillery systems and over 98,000 operational-tactical UAVs in its tracker as of mid-January 2026 [1] [2]. Open-source databases and military analyses (Oryx and U.S. Army commentary) have similarly documented multiple-thousand MBT and AFV losses and concluded Russia’s armored reserves have been severely depleted relative to prewar inventories [4] [6].
3. Why estimates diverge: methods, incentives and named lists
Different outlets use different methodologies—Ukraine’s General Staff posts cumulative combat losses (generally killed and wounded) via public appeals and social channels, open-source projects compile visually confirmed losses and named-lists validate deaths using media or official notices—leading to divergence between a modeled 1.2 million-plus total and named death lists in the 160,000–165,000 range assembled by investigative projects such as Mediazona and BBC Russian [2] [6] [5]. Analysts warn that each source carries biases: state actors may amplify or simplify figures for wartime messaging, open-source counts undercount unrecorded deaths, and researchers employing probate data or think‑tank models make assumptions that widen uncertainty [5] [6].
4. Independent corroboration and external assessments
Western officials and analysts have repeatedly described Russian attrition as heavy and, in some assessments, unsustainable—NATO commentary and reporting cited monthly kill rates in the tens of thousands at points in 2025—while U.S. Army and think‑tank analyses have underscored the strategic impact of armor and AFV depletion and reliance on refurbished equipment [10] [4]. These external assessments align with the directional picture from Ukrainian tallies and open-source imagery: high personnel attrition coupled with deep material losses that constrain large-scale mechanized operations [4] [10].
5. Caveats, uncertainties and what is not confirmed
Precise attribution—how many of the reported “losses” are deaths versus wounded, contractors versus regulars, or include separatist forces—is often unclear in public summaries, and both Russian secrecy and wartime information operations complicate verification; named-list projects explicitly exclude some categories and rely on verifiable publications, which produces conservative confirmed-death totals far below modelled aggregate counts [6] [5]. Where sources or methods are not explicit in the supplied reporting, this analysis does not assert their accuracy beyond noting their stated approach and limitations [5] [6].
6. Bottom line: a contested but clear trend
Across Ukrainian official tallies, independent trackers and Western analysis the consistent conclusion is severe attrition for Russian forces—exceeding one million personnel when using Ukrainian cumulative tallies and showing catastrophic equipment losses by most open-source accounts—yet the precise human toll and breakdown by category remain contested because of divergent methods, wartime incentives and gaps in verifiable documentation [2] [1] [4] [6].