Fact check: Who is winning in ukraine?

1. Summary of the results

1. Summary of the results:

The conflict is effectively in a stalemate, with neither side achieving decisive victory. Russia maintains control of 18% of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine has recaptured 54% of previously occupied areas. Recent developments include Russia's capture of Avdiivka and Ukraine's continued resistance despite facing significant challenges with military aid and resources.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints:

• Casualty numbers are crucial context: Russia has suffered 600,000-700,000 casualties while maintaining offensive operations, suggesting significant personnel reserves
• Only about 1% of territory has changed hands in 2023-2024, indicating a frozen conflict rather than active warfare
• North Korea's involvement supporting Russian forces adds an international dimension not widely discussed
• The $61bn US aid package in April 2024 significantly impacted Ukraine's defensive capabilities
• The conflict has evolved from traditional warfare to innovative tactics, particularly Ukraine's use of drone warfare

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement:

The question "Who is winning?" oversimplifies a complex military situation. Different parties define "winning" differently:

• For Russia, maintaining territorial control might constitute success
• For Ukraine, survival as a sovereign nation and Western support could be considered victory
• For Western allies, preventing Russian expansion while avoiding direct conflict might be the goal
• Defense contractors and military industries benefit financially from continued conflict, regardless of who is "winning"

The question's framing ignores the humanitarian cost and long-term economic impact on both nations, which makes traditional metrics of military victory less relevant.