Which regions and targets saw the biggest changes in strike frequency between Obama, Trump, and Biden?
Executive summary
Data compilations by The Bureau of Investigative Journalism and visualizations such as Drone Wars show the largest shifts in U.S. strike frequency by region across three presidencies: Pakistan and Yemen peaked under Obama (with Pakistan peaking around 2010 and Yemen around 2012) while Trump’s early term saw a sharp overall increase in “counterterror” strikes and a marked uptick in Afghanistan; Biden’s public profile shows fewer drone strikes overall though high-profile strikes (e.g., Kabul 2021 and the Zawahiri strike) occurred [1] [2] [3].
1. How scholars and trackers measure “biggest changes”
Researchers measure change by counting reported strikes by country and by quarter or year, then comparing peaks and troughs across administrations; The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (BIJ) tracked strikes in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia from 2010–2020 and used those counts to show where activity concentrated and when it surged or fell [4] [1]. The Drone Wars visualization maps strikes across presidencies and displays a time histogram that highlights different quarterly frequencies for Bush, Obama and Trump [2].
2. Obama’s period: Pakistan and Yemen dominated early peaks
Multiple trackers show Obama-era strikes concentrated in Pakistan (peaking around 2010) and Yemen (peaking around 2012), with the BIJ noting that strikes in Pakistan numbered in the hundreds over the period and that Obama ordered far more lethal strikes than his predecessor in the years surveyed [1] [5]. Brookings reported that Obama initially escalated strikes to disrupt al‑Qaeda/Taliban networks but then reduced their frequency late in his presidency as political backlash grew, for example in Pakistan [6].
3. Trump’s shift: rapid overall increase and Afghanistan intensification
Independent analyses and media reporting documented a sharp rise in U.S. counterterror air strikes during Trump’s first year—one BIJ story headlined that counterterror air strikes doubled in Trump’s first year—while Drone Wars’ visual timeline shows an especially intensified frequency and higher death rates in Afghanistan during late 2018 attributed to the Trump administration’s posture [7] [2]. Academic overviews also note the Trump administration’s looser public rules and increased “strategic effects” strikes, producing a measurable uptick over prior years [1] [7].
4. Biden: fewer strikes overall but notable, high-profile operations
Available sources indicate a drop in the overall number of strikes under President Biden compared with the peak years that preceded him, but the administration nonetheless conducted controversial, high-profile strikes—most prominently the August 2021 Kabul strike that killed civilians and the later strike that killed al‑Qaeda leader Ayman al‑Zawahiri—showing frequency alone does not capture policy impact [3]. The BIJ dataset used for 2010–2020 tracking does not cover Biden’s full term; media and encyclopedic summaries note decreased reported strike counts but stress notable exceptions [4] [3].
5. Regions with the largest relative change between administrations
- Pakistan: large surge under Obama (peak ~2010) followed by decline; BIJ and New America tracking place Pakistan among Obama’s most targeted countries [1] [8].
- Yemen: peaked under Obama (~2012) and figures across NGO datasets show high activity in that period [5] [1].
- Afghanistan: lower outside full-scale war years but rises in frequency and intensity under Trump’s later years according to Drone Wars’ histogram and narrative [2].
- Somalia and other theaters: tracked by BIJ but never reached the intensity of Pakistan/Yemen/Afghanistan in the Obama/Trump comparison [4].
6. What the counts miss: definitions, authorities and “other actions”
Counts vary by methodology. BIJ’s Yemen/Afghanistan/Somalia figures include drone strikes plus other covert actions and airstrikes in some datasets, while Pakistan counts may only include U.S. drone strikes—leading to non‑comparable totals across countries and years [5] [4]. Academic and government summaries warn that changes in legal authorities, rule sets (e.g., “strategic effects” strikes), and secrecy shape the observable numbers as much as changes in policy intent [1] [9].
7. Competing narratives and political use of the data
Political actors selectively cite different eras and totals: critics point to Obama’s high strike counts and civilian incidents, while other officials use Obama-era precedents to justify later actions. Commentators and NGOs emphasize civilian casualty metrics and legality; military and administration statements emphasize tactical success and counterterror objectives—each side drawing on different slices of the same base datasets [1] [10] [9].
8. Limitations of the available reporting
The provided sources do not contain a single, consistent table comparing per-country strike counts across Obama, Trump and Biden; they instead offer trackers, visualizations and thematic analyses that point to relative shifts [4] [2] [1]. Detailed, fully comparable per‑administration numbers by region are not found in the current set of sources; reconstructing a strict numeric ranking would require combining and normalizing multiple datasets beyond what these sources present [5] [2].
9. Bottom line for readers
Trackers and visualizations agree on the broad pattern: Obama concentrated strikes in Pakistan and Yemen with early peaks; Trump oversaw a sharp uptick—especially early in his term and notably in Afghanistan later on; Biden’s era shows fewer strikes overall but critical, high‑profile operations. Methodological differences, differing definitions of “strike,” and political framing mean readers must treat raw counts as indicative, not definitive, unless they examine the underlying datasets and inclusion rules [1] [2] [5].