Will Russia be the winner of this war over Ukraine
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Executive summary
Russia is unlikely to emerge as a clear, uncontested winner of the war over Ukraine in the foreseeable future: multiple expert scenario products and battlefield assessments point to a prolonged war of attrition, heavy Russian casualties for modest territorial gains, and powerful international constraints that make decisive victory improbable [1] [2] [3]. That said, Moscow can plausibly secure enough frozen gains or incremental advances to claim partial success politically, so outcomes remain contingent on diplomacy, Western support dynamics, and domestic resilience in both countries [4] [5].
1. The battlefield picture: attrition, small gains, and resilient resistance
Frontline reporting and military analysis describe grinding operations with localized advances but no strategic collapse of Ukrainian defenses; open-source and institute assessments note Ukrainian counterattacks in places like Kupyansk and continued advances in directions such as Kupyansk and Lyman while Russia also claims localized progress, illustrating a back-and-forth rather than a decisive Russian breakthrough [3] [6] [7]. Independent scenario analyses likewise project that the most probable near-term trajectory is a prolonged war of attrition rather than a rapid Russian victory, underscoring battlefield resilience on both sides [1] [4].
2. Human and material cost: heavy Russian losses for limited territory
Analysts calculate enormous Russian personnel and equipment losses relative to the modest territory gained: thinkings in major institutes place Russian casualties and equipment attrition at very high levels—hundreds of thousands of casualties and thousands of tanks and vehicles destroyed—while the territorial map has shifted only incrementally [2] [8]. Those metrics strengthen the argument that even if Moscow achieves tactical advances, the cost limits Russia’s ability to convert battlefield bloodletting into a sustainable, far-reaching victory [2] [8].
3. Economic and political constraints inside Russia
Russia faces mounting economic strains—high interest rates, inflation, and shrinking growth—that commentators and reporting argue have made long-term mobilization and sustained wartime production more difficult even as the Kremlin adapts to sanctions [9]. Political imperatives also bind Putin to seek tangible results, making a diplomatic compromise politically fraught, yet economic realities and casualty figures constrain the Kremlin’s margin for converting tactical wins into strategic conquest [9] [7].
4. International dynamics: Western support, shifts in US policy, and scenarios
Multiple sources stress that the war’s trajectory depends heavily on Western military and diplomatic posture; if US and European support wanes, Russia’s odds of consolidating gains increase, while sustained or enhanced Western backing improves Ukraine’s prospects for holding or reversing ground [1] [10] [5]. Forecast products and think‑tank scenarios outline divergent paths—frozen front, negotiated settlement, Ukrainian breakthrough, or continued attrition—highlighting that external political shifts (including US administration changes) could materially change whether Russia can translate battlefield pressure into lasting strategic success [11] [12] [13].
5. Endgames and the definition of “winner”
Experts caution that “winning” is not binary: Russia could biologically outlast Ukraine in some senses, freeze the conflict to secure occupied territories, or extract diplomatic concessions without occupying all of Ukraine—a limited victory that falls short of regime change or full territorial control [4] [14]. Conversely, a Ukrainian breakthrough or durable international settlement could deny Moscow any plausible victory. Forecasts from institutions such as the IMF and scenario teams present both an end to the fighting in late 2025/26 under some assumptions and prolonged conflict under others, reinforcing how contingent any “winner” verdict remains [5] [1].
Conclusion — direct answer
Based on the reporting, Russia is unlikely to be the outright winner of this war in the near term: battlefield realities point to attrition and incremental gains at very high cost, economic and political limits constrain Moscow’s capacity for decisive conquest, and international dynamics could blunt or reverse Russian advances [2] [9] [3]. That said, Russia can plausibly secure a partial or frozen “victory” by consolidating occupied areas or extracting diplomatic settlements favorable to its interests should Western support erode or negotiations favor concessions—so while a full, uncontested Russian triumph is improbable, a limited or de facto Russian success remains possible and depends on variables beyond the battlefield [4] [5] [7].