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Fact check: Did 2023–2025 federal policy changes (e.g., benefit recalculations, emergency allotments ending) alter state average SNAP payments in 2025?
Executive Summary
Federal policy changes enacted or implemented between 2023 and 2025 — including the end of SNAP emergency allotments, adjustments tied to Thrifty Food Plan recalculations, and provisions in the 2025 reconciliation legislation that alter work requirements and allowable deductions — contributed to lower average monthly SNAP payments relative to the counterfactual baseline in 2025, though the magnitude and distribution of those changes varied by state and were partially offset by administrative transitions and temporary federal hold-harmless guidance. The federal analyses and state fact sheets indicate reductions in benefit levels and participation for some groups, while policy timing, state responses, and partial offsets (for example, Quality Control hold-harmless periods) produced uneven impacts on state average payments [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the headlines point to a nationwide tug-of-war over SNAP payments
Federal and state documents from 2024–2025 frame the policy shifts as a set of interconnected actions that move money and eligibility rules between Washington and the states. The USDA information memorandum summarizes the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 provisions that change the Thrifty Food Plan, modify work requirements, and restrict certain allowances, with staggered effective dates and the agency promising further guidance; USDA also instructed FNS to hold states harmless for Quality Control for 120 days after implementation, which temporarily blunted administrative penalties [2]. State fact sheets, like Minnesota’s, paint those federal changes as shifting costs and administrative burdens to states and households, noting that hundreds of thousands of residents could be affected by benefit reductions and eligibility re-evaluations [3]. Those parallel narratives explain why national averages in 2025 would reflect both direct federal benefit reductions and state-level reactions.
2. Hard numbers: CBO’s projection of benefit declines and what they mean for states
The Congressional Budget Office quantified the effect: the 2023–2025 policy ensemble leads to a smaller average monthly SNAP benefit trajectory than prior baselines, estimating an average reduction of about $14 per month by 2034 relative to the baseline and anticipating near-term declines in both benefits and participation among affected subgroups [1]. That projected reduction in per-recipient benefit is a national average, meaning state-level average payments in 2025 could differ materially from the national signal depending on how many households lost emergency allotments earlier, how states adjusted or preserved supplemental state-funded benefits, and demographic differences such as concentrations of American Indian households who may see offsetting participation changes [1]. CBO’s forecast frames the observed 2025 averages as a blend of federal rule changes and state policy choices.
3. The emergency allotments’ ending: a concrete driver of lower monthly payments
Multiple state notices and analyses document that the end of pandemic-era emergency allotments beginning in 2023 removed a recurring top-up that had inflated monthly SNAP payments, and that cessation materially lowered household benefits and thereby reduced state average payments where those allotments had been significant. Maryland’s announcement that emergency allotments ended in February 2023 illustrates the mechanism: households that had received extra monthly allotments saw their checks shrink, and state averages adjusted downward accordingly [4]. Analysts and advocacy groups flagged that the removal of emergency allotments interacts with later 2025 policy changes that further adjust benefit calculations and eligibility rules, creating compounding downward pressure on state average SNAP payments unless states supplement federal benefits [5] [6].
4. Legislative changes in 2025: benefit recalculations, work rules, and shifting costs
The 2025 reconciliation bill and related legislative proposals re-evaluated the Thrifty Food Plan and expanded or modified work requirements while restricting certain deductions and allowances, actions that directly influence benefit amounts and eligibility. Minnesota’s state briefing details how those provisions could reduce purchasing power and increase administrative burdens, potentially prompting states to absorb costs or narrow program options [3]. Congressional and advocacy analyses warn that proposals to shift benefit costs onto states would compel reductions in eligibility or benefit levels or force tradeoffs with other state-funded programs, a dynamic that would further alter state average SNAP payments in 2025 depending on state fiscal responses [6] [3]. The USDA memorandum confirms staggered implementation timelines that mean 2025 impacts vary by provision and by state timing [2].
5. What the mixed picture means for interpreting 2025 state averages
Reconciling these sources shows that 2025 state average SNAP payments were altered by a mix of federal-level reductions and the earlier termination of emergency allotments, but the size of the change in any given state depended on timing, preexisting state supplements, demographic composition, and administrative responses. CBO provides the national projection of lower average benefits; state documents underscore local exposure and the possibility of shifted costs; USDA guidance and hold-harmless windows produced temporary mitigation for some administrative penalties [1] [3] [2]. Readers should interpret 2025 state averages as the product of layered policies — some directly reducing benefit levels, others changing eligibility and reporting — with uneven distribution across states and populations.