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Fact check: What were the voter turnout numbers for the 2020 presidential election compared to 2024?
Executive summary
The best available official comparisons show 2024 turnout at 65.3% of the citizen voting‑age population, down about 1.5 percentage points from 2020 when turnout ranged between roughly 63% and 66.8% depending on the measure used. Discrepancies in headline numbers arise because sources use different denominators (citizen voting‑age population, eligible voters, or estimated eligible voters) and count ballots differently, so the apparent change is small but sensitive to methodology [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Why the headline percentages don’t agree — the measurement fight that matters
Different authoritative reports use different denominators and counting rules, and that explains the conflicting headline figures for 2020 and 2024. The U.S. Census Bureau reports turnout as a percentage of the citizen voting‑age population, giving 66.8% for 2020, while other analyses, like Pew, estimate turnout as a share of estimated eligible voters and reported roughly 63% for 2020 — both are accurate within their frameworks but not directly comparable [1] [2]. The 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement likewise reports 65.3% of the citizen voting‑age population voted in 2024, a metric that yields a 1.5 percentage‑point decline from the Census’s 2020 CPS baseline; that decline is the basis for claims that turnout dipped slightly in 2024 [3] [4]. Analysts and journalists must therefore note which base they use before declaring a rise or fall.
2. The raw ballots: millions of votes but differing tallies
Raw vote totals cited for 2020 also vary, with the Census Bureau noting about 155 million people voted and other analyses citing nearly 158.4 million ballots cast; those gaps reflect timing, inclusion rules for provisional/absentee ballots, and post‑election adjustments [1] [2]. For 2024, CPS reporting focuses on rates rather than a single consolidated national ballots count in the dataset cited, but the 65.3% turnout percentage corresponds to a large electorate comparable in scale to 2020, making 2024 the third‑highest turnout rate since 1980 according to the CPS summary [3] [4]. When comparing absolute ballot counts, minor differences in counting windows and validation procedures can flip which year looks larger, so absolute totals should be interpreted alongside methodology.
3. Who shifted — demographic patterns that shaped turnout changes
Available reporting on 2024 indicates differential turnout by sex and age: women voted at higher rates than men, and voters aged 65+ had the highest turnout, patterns that mirror or accentuate trends seen in previous cycles [4]. The CPS also notes that registration remained relatively high in 2024 (73.6% registered), implying that the small percentage decline in turnout was not driven by widespread falls in registration but by participation among registered or eligible groups [3]. Observers should note that even modest percentage changes distributed unevenly across demographics can produce meaningful impacts in swing states; analyses comparing 2020 and 2024 therefore examine both national rates and state‑level shifts to understand electoral consequences [5].
4. Trust, administration, and context — why turnout moved only a little
Post‑election public‑opinion reporting shows voters were broadly more positive about how the 2024 elections were conducted relative to 2020, which may have reduced barriers to voting or altered mobilization incentives [6]. Yet despite improved perceptions and strong registration, turnout edged down slightly by CPS measures, suggesting that administration improvements alone did not increase participation beyond the extraordinary mobilization that produced 2020’s record levels [2] [4]. Political context — candidate dynamics, issue salience, and targeted ground campaigns — also influences turnout in ways that national aggregates can mask; small national shifts can reflect large state‑level movements.
5. Bottom line — what to report and what to caveat
The clearest, source‑consistent bottom line is that 2024 turnout was 65.3% of the citizen voting‑age population (CPS), about 1.5 points lower than the CPS‑measured turnout for 2020, while other measures that use eligible‑voter denominators or alternative ballot counts put 2020 and 2024 closer together or show other variations [3] [4] [1] [2]. Reporters and analysts must always state the denominator — citizen voting‑age population vs. eligible voters vs. ballots cast — and cite the dataset when comparing years. Differences between sources reflect methodology, not necessarily contradictions in the underlying fact that both 2020 and 2024 were among the highest turnout elections in modern U.S. history [2] [4].