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What percentage of 18-29 year olds voted for Trump in the 2024 election?
Executive Summary
The best available analyses of 2024 youth voting indicate that roughly 46–49% of voters aged 18–29 supported Donald Trump, a substantial increase from 2020 but still in a close contest with the Democratic ticket. Multiple exit-poll style reports and large surveys conducted in November 2024 converge on this range, while other datasets note variation by gender, race, and methodology; young men shifted especially strongly toward Trump [1] [2] [3]. These figures reflect divergent sample frames and reporting approaches, so the precise percentage depends on which poll or exit-poll subset one accepts, but the consistent signal is a significant GOP gain among young voters in 2024 [1] [2] [3].
1. Why multiple analyses point to nearly half of young voters backing Trump — and why numbers vary
Exit-polling and large-scale post-election surveys conducted in November 2024 show a clustered finding: roughly 46–49% of 18–29 year olds voted for Trump, with most public summaries citing 46% from exit-poll based summaries and AP VoteCast near 49% [3] [2]. The variation stems from differences in methodology: traditional television exit polls (compiled by National Election Pool) produce one estimate, while VoteCast, a large online-probability survey of more than 120,000 voters, yields a slightly higher share reflecting different sampling weights and turnout assumptions. Analysts also note that who counts as a “voter” (registered vs. actual voters, or modeled turnout) affects the percentage reported, which explains why Statista and other secondary aggregators sometimes require paid access to view the exact breakdowns [4] [5].
2. The gender story: young men flipped and young women shifted toward Trump, altering the headline percentage
The most consistent subgroup finding across these reports is a dramatic swing among young men, where one analysis reports 56% support for Trump among men ages 18–29 compared with far weaker male support for Democrats in 2020, and young women also showed a notable uptick to roughly 40% for Trump in some datasets [1] [3]. These gender splits substantially raised the overall 18–29 Trump share compared to 2020, when the Democratic nominee led by a far larger margin among youth. The gendered shift suggests that messaging, issue salience (economy, crime, concerns about culture), and turnout dynamics combined to move male youth voters disproportionately in 2024 [1] [2].
3. Racial and ethnic differences: white youth vs. majority-minority youth dynamics
Reports emphasize sharp contrast by race and ethnicity within the 18–29 cohort: white youth tended to favor Trump, while strong majorities of Black, Asian, and Latino young voters continued to back the Democratic ticket [1]. The aggregate near-half share for Trump therefore masks substantial subgroup heterogeneity — a white youth base offset by continued Democratic strength among nonwhite young voters. Analysts caution that demographic composition of youth turnout in specific states affected national exit-poll aggregates, and that shifts among particular racial or ethnic groups could materially change the overall percentage reported by different surveys [1] [6].
4. Methodological cautions: exit polls, VoteCast, and the limits of public aggregations
The reported 46–49% range comes with caveats: exit polls depend on where and when pollsters sample, and VoteCast uses online probability panels that adjust weights differently, producing slightly different point estimates [3] [2]. Statista and some research summaries note restricted access to full tables, which complicates verification for casual readers and can lead to overreliance on headlines [4] [5]. Some later analyses and retrospective turnout studies also debate whether youth turnout proportions themselves shifted from 2020 to 2024, which would alter the effective impact of a 46–49% Trump share among young people on the total electorate [6].
5. Bottom line and what to watch next: consensus, uncertainty, and policy implications
Across authoritative post-election surveys and exit-poll summaries, the consensus is that nearly half of 18–29 year olds voted for Trump in 2024, with a central estimate around 46% and some large surveys near 49%, and that this represented a meaningful GOP gain driven by young men and varying by race [1] [2] [3]. This shift matters for future political strategy, as parties weigh youth messaging on the economy, student debt, and cultural issues; researchers will refine these numbers further as state-level microdata and validated voter files become publicly available. Readers should treat single-point figures as conditional on methodology and consult full exit-poll tables or VoteCast methodology notes for precise subgroup breakdowns [3] [2].