Which demographic groups shifted their support towards Trump in 2024?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s 2024 gains came not from a single monolithic swing but from a patchwork of shifts: men overall—especially men of color—moved toward Trump, younger voters (Gen Z and other youth) shifted right compared with 2020, and Trump made measurable inroads among Hispanic, Black and Asian voters as well as among naturalized citizens and non‑college voters; many analysts stress that differential turnout, not mass partisan switching, was a major driver [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Men — and especially men of color — moved toward Trump
Multiple post‑election analyses show the largest single demographic swing was among men, with particularly large shifts for Hispanic and Black men: Navigator reported Trump winning Hispanic men by a point in 2024 after a 34‑point Democratic margin in 2020, and a similar 35‑point swing among Black men [1], while AP VoteCast also highlighted gains among men concentrated in younger, Black and Latino cohorts [2].
2. Young voters shifted right compared with 2020, with nuance by race
Researchers and university panels flagged a notable rightward movement among younger voters: Tufts’ CIRCLE data reported white youth favored Trump by 10 points in 2024 and that young Latino and Black voters showed large swings toward Trump compared with 2020 even if they still leaned Democratic overall [5], and Harvard’s Ash Center explored Gen Z’s relative drift toward Trump and suggested economic and immigration concerns and dissatisfaction with Democrats helped drive that change [6].
3. Nonwhite voters — gains for Trump, but not uniform defections
Pew and other validated‑voter studies show Trump improved his standing across nonwhite groups: his margins narrowed with Hispanic, Black and Asian voters compared with 2020, making his 2024 coalition more racially and ethnically diverse [7] [3]. Navigator quantified big contractions in Democratic margins among Hispanic and Asian voters and a smaller but real movement among Black voters [1]. Analysts caution, however, that much of this reflected turnout dynamics and subgroup variation rather than wholesale party switching [4] [3].
4. Naturalized citizens and turnout effects mattered more than mass switching
Pew’s validated voter work and subsequent postmortems emphasized that changes in who voted—higher turnout among Trump‑leaning cohorts and an edge with voters who sat out in 2020—explained much of the red shift; naturalized citizens were more closely divided in 2024 than 2020, moving toward Trump compared with four years earlier [4] [3] [8]. Pew found that naturalized citizens made up about 9% of the electorate and voted much more narrowly in 2024 than in 2020, evidence that turnout composition was central [8].
5. Education, geography and non‑college voters amplified Trump’s gains
Analysts note that Trump’s gains were strongest among non‑college voters and in many urban counties with growing immigrant populations; county‑level work tied shifts toward Trump to lower education levels and larger Hispanic and immigrant shares in some places, complicating simple racial explanations [9]. Multiple studies thus link the electoral change to the intersection of education, local demography and turnout rather than a uniform demographic realignment [9] [3].
6. Caveats, competing measurements and possible biases
Different data sources emphasize different patterns—exit polls, AP VoteCast, Navigator and Pew sometimes diverge on whether men or women shifted more and on the size of youth swings—and analysts warn that panel and voter‑file‑validated studies paint a different picture from initial exit polls, meaning conclusions depend on methodology and weighting choices [8] [2]. Publications and think tanks may foreground particular narratives—racial realignment, youth disaffection, turnout effects—based on their methods and audiences, so comparing Pew’s validated‑voter findings with AP and Navigator reporting is essential to avoid overreading any single result [4] [1] [2].