What percentage of independent voters supported each major candidate in the 2024 election?
Executive summary
The reporting supplied does not include a single, authoritative national percentage breakdown of how self-identified independents split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential vote; instead, exit-poll analyses and post‑election surveys converge on a clear pattern: independents composed roughly one‑third of the electorate and, nationally, leaned slightly toward Harris — while in several swing states they were decisive for Trump in the presidential tally even as they voted for Democrats in down‑ballot races [1] [2] [3]. Because none of the provided sources give a definitive national percentage point split of independents for each major candidate, any single-number claim cannot be supported from this corpus.
1. How many independents voted — the scale of the bloc
Exit-poll and post‑election analyses put self‑identified independents at about 34 percent of the 2024 electorate, a share that in many accounts equaled or exceeded one of the major parties and made independents the pivotal swing bloc in key states [1] [4] [2]. Edison Research/NEP exit data underpin much of this finding and were used by analysts to show independents’ outsized influence on several razor‑thin outcomes [1] [5].
2. What the national snapshots say about independent vote choice
National post‑election surveys reported that the overall presidential vote split narrowly favored Donald Trump 50% to Kamala Harris’s 48% among all voters, while multiple analyses note that independents “slightly favored Harris” in national polling and surveys — a characterization reported by PRRI and Reuters — though PRRI’s public summary did not publish a single precise national percentage for independents by candidate in the excerpts provided [3] [2]. Edison/NEP exit‑poll summaries likewise state that independents, like in 2020, leaned toward the Democratic nominee even as Trump improved his standing with that group [2].
3. The state‑level wrinkle: independents split their tickets
Analysts emphasize that independents were unusually likely to split tickets in 2024: twice as likely as partisans to choose different parties for president and Senate, with about 10 percent splitting tickets nationally, which helps explain why Trump could carry the presidential race in several swing states even where Democrats won Senate contests [1] [6]. Reporting from outlets such as Governing and Independent Voter News used Edison data to show independents powering contradictory state outcomes — a key reason national percentages mask important regional variation [1] [6].
4. Competing narratives and methodological caveats
Different organizations frame the independent story differently: outlets using exit‑poll snapshots highlight that independents “favored the Democratic candidate” nationally (Reuters, Edison), while campaign‑era polling and opinion pieces sometimes cast independents as tilting toward Trump or as volatile and candidate‑dependent [2] [7]. The limitation across these sources is methodological: exit polls, post‑election surveys and partisan‑lean measures vary in question wording, sample, and whether they count “independents” who lean toward a party — so minor percentage differences in reporting can reflect methodology rather than dramatic shifts in voter intent [8] [1].
5. Bottom line — what can be asserted with confidence
From the supplied reporting it can be confidently stated that independents were about one‑third of voters in 2024 and that, on national summaries, they slightly favored Harris even as they were decisive for Trump in certain battlegrounds and more likely than partisans to split their tickets [1] [3] [2]. The exact nationwide percentage of independents who voted for Trump versus Harris is not provided in the documents furnished here; therefore a precise numeric breakdown for independents by candidate cannot be produced from these sources without risking overreach.