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Fact check: What was the voter turnout in states that used paper ballots in the 2024 presidential election?
Executive Summary
The available analyses show that national turnout in the 2024 U.S. presidential election was reported at 65.3% of the citizen voting-age population by the U.S. Census Bureau, while at least one key battleground state that uses paper ballots, Michigan, reported a record 72% turnout. However, none of the provided sources directly aggregate or compare turnout specifically for the set of states that use paper ballots versus those that do not, so no definitive figure exists in the supplied material for “states that used paper ballots” as a group [1] [2].
1. Why the question matters — turnout, paper ballots, and public confidence
Voter turnout statistics and the method of balloting are often linked in public debate about election integrity and accessibility, but the provided materials reveal a gap between turnout data and ballot-type attribution. The U.S. Census Bureau supplies a comprehensive national turnout rate of 65.3% for the 2024 presidential election, which is useful for national comparisons, but its tables do not break turnout down by the type of ballot used [1]. Several election analyses and reportage pieces highlight high turnout in key states—including Michigan’s reported 72%—yet they stop short of claiming causation between paper-ballot usage and turnout, underscoring that turnout is shaped by many factors beyond ballot technology [2].
2. What the sources actually claim — specific numbers and silence
Among the materials, the clearest numeric claims are the Census Bureau’s overall 65.3% turnout figure and States United Democracy Center’s reporting that Michigan reached 72% turnout in November 2024 [1] [2]. Other mainstream election coverage included in the set—AP and CNN analyses—focus on results and maps without detailing turnout by ballot type, and several technical or academic pieces on online voting and verification do not address turnout at all (p1_s2, [4], [10]–p2_s3). The net result is concrete national and state numbers but no sourced aggregate for "paper-ballot states" in the material provided.
3. Comparing claims and identifying where evidence is lacking
The materials agree on two points: national turnout sits at 65.3%, and some states such as Michigan reported notably higher turnout [1] [2]. They diverge or remain silent on whether ballot type correlates with turnout: several sources neither affirm nor deny any relationship, and technical voting-system papers explicitly do not address turnout by ballot type (p2_s1–p2_s3). The absence of crosswalked data—matching each state’s ballot system to its turnout figure—is the critical omission needed to answer the original question rigorously. Because that crosswalk is missing in the supplied analyses, any claim that "states that used paper ballots had X turnout" would be unsupported by these sources [3] [4].
4. Alternative explanations and confounding factors to consider
Even if turnout data by ballot type were available, the supplied materials suggest multiple confounders would complicate attribution: demographic shifts, competitive races, outreach and turnout drives, election administration, and mail/early voting policies all influence turnout independently of whether a state uses paper ballots [5] [2]. The technical literature on voting systems in the set also shows diverse priorities—security, verification, coercion mitigation—rather than turnout effects, reinforcing that ballot technology is only one variable among many [6] [7]. Therefore, causal claims require careful multivariate analysis not present here.
5. What can be responsibly concluded from these sources
From the supplied analyses, the responsible conclusions are limited but clear: national turnout in 2024 was 65.3%, and Michigan, a state that uses paper ballots, recorded 72% turnout, demonstrating high engagement in at least one paper-ballot state [1] [2]. The materials do not provide a pooled turnout percentage for all paper-ballot states, nor do they present statistical analysis linking paper ballots to higher or lower turnout. Any stronger claim would go beyond the available evidence and should be flagged as unsupported by the supplied sources [3] [4].
6. What to do next if you want a definitive answer
To answer the original question definitively, assemble two data sets and combine them: [8] a state-by-state turnout table for the 2024 presidential election (for example, the U.S. Census Bureau state turnout records) and [9] an authoritative inventory of which states primarily used paper ballots in 2024. Then compute the weighted turnout for that subset and conduct sensitivity checks for confounders cited above. The current corpus—Census national tables, state-focused turnout reporting, and voting-technology papers—provides partial pieces but not the cross-referenced dataset required [1] [2] [10].
Sources cited: [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [2], [10], [6], [7].