How does the 2024 presidential election voter turnout compare to historical averages?
Executive summary
The 2024 presidential election produced one of the highest turnout rates in modern U.S. history — well above long‑run midcentury averages but slightly below the record spike of 2020 — with national turnout estimates clustering around the mid‑60s percent of eligible or registered voters (Census: 65.3%; Pew: ~64%; Ballotpedia and Election Lab estimates) [1] [2] [3] [4]. How that compares to "historical averages" depends on the metric used (VAP, VEP, or percent of voting‑age citizens) and the baseline period chosen, but on the commonly used Voting Eligible Population (VEP) or Census measures, 2024 is clearly above the long‑term average while slightly under 2020’s exceptional high [5] [1] [2].
1. National turnout in 2024 vs. the recent peak and long‑run norms
Census Bureau data put 2024 voting and registration at 65.3% of U.S. citizens voting and 73.6% of the voting‑age population registered, making 2024 the third‑highest turnout in recent decades and about 1.5 percentage points below 2020’s record high depending on the series referenced [1] [6]. Pew frames the comparison to the 20th century by noting 2020’s roughly 66% rate was the highest since 1908 and that 2024’s ~64% is the second‑highest (tied with 1960) on that long sweep — underlining that both 2020 and 2024 are outliers above late‑20th century norms [2]. Ballotpedia and the University of Florida Election Lab likewise show 2024 turnout up markedly relative to most post‑midcentury elections but below 2020 on VEP or total ballots counted measurements [3] [4] [5].
2. The measurement caveat: which turnout "average" matters
Historical comparisons hinge on definitions: turnout as a share of the Voting Age Population (VAP), Voting Eligible Population (VEP), registered voters, or citizens produces different levels and trends; for example, research argues turnout has not declined since 1972 when using VEP rather than VAP (Wikipedia summary of the literature) [7]. The Election Lab and Ballotpedia stress that most states report total ballots counted as the preferred metric and that certified numbers and denominator construction (who’s counted as eligible) can change published rates, so small percentage differences between 2020 and 2024 can reflect methodology as much as behavior [4] [5].
3. Who moved the needle: demographic and state patterns
State and demographic patterns show 2024’s turnout remained high overall but uneven: several states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Colorado reported turnout above 73% while low‑turnout states such as Hawaii and Oklahoma were around the low‑50s, and battlegrounds averaged roughly 70% — slightly lower than 2020’s battleground average [3]. Demographically, youth participation fell modestly from 2020 but remained far above older midterm baselines (CIRCLE’s revised youth estimate of ~47% versus 50% in 2020), and Census and USAFacts reporting show turnout declines across several racial/ethnic groups relative to 2020, even as total national participation stayed high [8] [6] [1].
4. Interpreting the drop from 2020 and the policy context
The 1–2 point decline from 2020 to 2024 should be read against the exceptional circumstances of 2020 (pandemic, intense mobilization) and growing polarization that sustained elevated turnout in 2024 rather than a return to low‑participation norms; analysts attribute much of the pattern to changing mobilization and partisan intensity, with some groups more likely to churn in and out of the electorate (Pew, Catalist) [2] [9]. At the same time, methodological noise — variations in whether turnouts are reported as votes for president, ballots cast, or adjusted VEP denominators — means small differences between years are not definitive proof of a structural decline [4] [7].
5. Bottom line
Measured on commonly used national series, 2024 produced turnout among the highest in over a century and well above late‑20th‑century averages, but it was modestly lower than 2020’s exceptional peak by roughly 1–2 percentage points depending on the source and metric (Census, Pew, Ballotpedia, USAFacts) [1] [2] [3] [6]. The substantive story is less a collapse than a normalization from an historically unprecedented 2020 surge into persistently elevated participation driven by polarization, demographic shifts, and state‑by‑state variation — and any firm claim about a new trend must account for definitional choices and the fact that certified reporting and VEP estimates continue to be refined [5] [4].