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Fact check: What percentage of registered Republicans voted for Trump in 2024?

Checked on October 19, 2025

Executive Summary

The data provided shows two different estimates for the share of registered Republicans who supported Donald Trump in 2024: a March 2024 Marquette Law School poll finding 88% of self‑identified Republicans intended to vote for Trump, and post‑election exit polls showing 94% of respondents who identified as Republicans voted for Trump [1] [2]. Other news analyses referenced do not report a precise percentage and instead describe broader election outcomes and methodologies without offering a direct numeric breakdown [3] [4] [5] [6].

1. Why two different numbers tell different parts of the story

The 88% figure comes from a pre‑election national poll of registered voters conducted March 18–28, 2024, by Marquette Law School, asking vote choice by party identification and reporting that proportion of Republicans who planned to vote for Trump [1]. The 94% figure comes from post‑election exit poll tabulations that record actual voter choices on Election Day, reflecting behaviors of those who turned out and were interviewed after voting [2]. The difference between intention in March and reported behavior in exit polls likely reflects both campaign dynamics over time and turnout effects; polls capture a snapshot of intent, while exit polls capture final choices among voters who participated.

2. What the Marquette poll actually measured and why it matters

Marquette’s March 2024 survey interviewed 868 registered voters nationwide and presented party‑identified vote preferences in Table 3, with 88% of respondents labeling themselves Republicans indicating they would vote for Donald Trump [1]. Because this poll was conducted months before the election, it measures declared intentions rather than final behavior and is sensitive to sample composition, question wording, likely‑voter modeling, and late campaign events. Polls like Marquette’s are valuable for tracking shifts over time, but they do not substitute for post‑election data showing how registered Republicans actually voted on Election Day.

3. What the exit polls measured and their strengths and limits

Exit poll results cited show 94% of respondents who self‑identified as Republicans reported voting for Trump [2]. Exit polls are conducted at polling locations and therefore reflect actual votes among those sampled, making them a strong indicator of voting behavior among turnout. However, exit polls can be affected by sampling choices of precincts, nonresponse, and the accuracy of self‑reported party identification at the point of voting. The 94% figure should be read as the share among voters captured by those exit polls, not a direct measure of the entire registered Republican population.

4. Reconciling intent, turnout, and definition differences

Differences between intent polls and exit polls stem from three main factors evident in the sources: timing (March vs post‑election), sample type (registered voters vs actual voters at polling sites), and identification method (party identification in a survey vs self‑reported affiliation when leaving the polling place) [1] [2]. These methodological distinctions mean both numbers are valid within their contexts: one captures a snapshot of preferences before events that could change minds, and the other captures how those who voted actually decided on Election Day.

5. What other provided news analyses add and omit

Broader news analyses in the dataset describe Trump’s victory and the political context but do not provide a specific percentage of registered Republicans who voted for him [3] [4] [5] [6]. These pieces supply useful background on campaign activity and election atmosphere but omit the quantitative breakdown sought here. Their omission highlights the importance of returning to primary empirical sources—polls and exit data—to answer the precise question about party‑level support.

6. Which figure to cite when answering “what percentage of registered Republicans voted for Trump”

If the question asks about registered Republicans’ pre‑election support, cite the Marquette poll’s 88% (March 2024) because it reports intentions among registered voters [1]. If the question asks about how registered Republicans who cast ballots actually voted, cite the exit poll’s 94% figure as it reports observed post‑vote self‑reports [2]. Clearly labeling which measure you mean — intention vs actual vote — is essential because both figures come from different methodologies and points in time.

7. Bottom line with sourcing and dates

The best available, sourced answers in the provided material are: 88% of registered Republicans said they intended to vote for Trump in the Marquette Law School poll conducted March 18–28, 2024 [1], and 94% of respondents identifying as Republicans reported voting for Trump in exit‑poll data published October 6, 2025 [2]. Other contemporaneous analyses referenced do not report a numerical percentage and instead focus on narrative and methodology [3] [4] [5] [6].

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