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Fact check: What were the swing state vote margins between Trump and Harris in 2024?

Checked on August 27, 2025

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available analysis, the 2024 presidential election saw Trump make gains across all seven swing states, though these improvements were generally smaller than his national performance gains [1]. The average swing across swing states was 3.5%, with Wisconsin showing the smallest swing and Georgia displaying the largest swing toward Trump [1].

Trump performed particularly well in Arizona and Nevada, where his gains nearly matched his nationwide improvement [1]. This strong performance in these southwestern states appears to be linked to Trump's success in gaining ground among Latino voters [1].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question asks for specific vote margins between Trump and Harris, but the provided analyses focus on swing percentages and comparative performance rather than actual vote totals or margin data. Key missing information includes:

  • Actual vote margins in each swing state - the analyses discuss swings but not final margin numbers
  • Specific percentage breakdowns for each of the seven swing states individually
  • Baseline comparison data from previous elections to contextualize the 3.5% average swing
  • Detailed demographic breakdowns beyond the brief mention of Latino voter trends
  • Turnout data that might explain the swing patterns
  • Economic or policy factors that may have influenced voting patterns in different swing states

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself does not contain misinformation or bias - it is a straightforward factual inquiry about election results. However, the question assumes the availability of specific margin data that the provided analyses do not actually contain. The analyses focus more on comparative swings and trends rather than providing the precise numerical margins requested, which could lead to an incomplete answer to the user's specific question about vote margins.

Want to dive deeper?
What were the key issues that influenced swing state voters in the 2024 election?
How did the 2024 election results in swing states compare to the 2020 election?
Which demographic groups swung the vote in key states between Trump and Harris?
What role did campaign spending play in determining the outcome in swing states?
How did voter turnout rates affect the margins in swing states during the 2024 election?