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Which U.S. House races in 2024 were decided by less than 1% and on what dates were they called?
Executive Summary
The available analyses disagree on which 2024 U.S. House contests were decided by under 1 percent and none of the supplied summaries contains authoritative call dates; the most detailed claim identifies California’s 13th District (Adam Gray over John Duarte by 0.09%, ~187 votes) as the narrowest margin, while another analysis points to Ohio’s 13th as an ultra-close contest with a 0.046-point difference (both sources do not provide call dates or certification timing). The rest of the provided reports acknowledge multiple tight contests—dozens within 5 percent—but collectively they fail to supply the official “called” dates or consistent, corroborated lists of sub-1% House races, leaving the specific question unanswered on the evidence given [1] [2] [3].
1. Conflicting claims about the closest race — California’s 13th versus Ohio’s 13th
The strongest single-source claim identifies California’s 13th Congressional District as the narrowest 2024 House race, with Adam Gray (D) defeating John Duarte (R) by 0.09 percentage points, roughly 187 votes out of more than 200,000 cast, per a margin-of-victory analysis that flags this as the election’s closest House result [1]. That same package from Ballotpedia also reports that 22 House elections finished within 5 percentage points, indicating multiple competitive contests that could include sub-1% margins elsewhere, but Ballotpedia’s summary does not list call dates or subsequent certification timelines. In contrast, a separate dataset highlights Ohio’s 13th as a razor-thin outcome—0.046 points—and notes narrow vote differences in related presidential-House crossover reporting, but this source likewise does not provide the official date when media or officials “called” the House race [2]. The juxtaposition underscores inconsistent identification of the absolute narrowest race across the available analyses.
2. What the turnout and margin numbers actually show—and what they don’t
The analytic outputs make clear that several House contests in 2024 were extremely close by raw-vote and percentage metrics: Ballotpedia documents margins such as 0.09 percentage points in CA-13 and a broader set of 22 races under 5 points, while Downballot-oriented analyses single out ultra-small differences like the 0.046-point spread in OH-13 [1] [2]. These figures are precise about votes and percentages and therefore reliably indicate statistical closeness, but they do not translate directly into a call date because media calls and official certifications depend on canvass completion, provisional and absentee verification, and any recount thresholds. The supplied sources repeatedly omit call-date data, meaning the important procedural timeline—when networks or election officials deemed a winner—remains unreported in the materials provided [3] [4].
3. Why no source gives the call dates—procedural and reporting gaps
None of the supplied source summaries includes explicit call dates for the sub-1% contests; this absence reflects two separate gaps in the materials: first, the datasets appear focused on final margin analysis and district-level crossover patterns, not on real-time election night decisioning or the chronology of media calls [1] [5]. Second, several of the broader overviews and political ratings referenced explicitly note they lack granular race-level timing and instead summarize seat changes and forecast shifts [3] [6] [7]. The consequence is predictable: one can identify which contests were narrow, but with the current evidence one cannot state with confidence on which calendar dates those races were first publicly called or certified without consulting state canvass records, network call logs, or contemporaneous reporting beyond the supplied analyses [4] [8].
4. How differing agendas and focus areas shape the discrepancies
The materials’ divergent emphases reflect different institutional aims: Ballotpedia-style margin analyses focus on post-election numeric breakdowns, Crystal Ball and forecast pieces highlight partisan crossover and predictive accuracy, while congressional summary reports prioritize overall seat counts and procedural developments—none prioritize “call-date” chronology [1] [5] [4]. That difference in editorial mission explains why one source will flag CA-13 as the narrowest and another will single out OH-13—their datasets and inclusion criteria differ, and no source here documents the media or official timeline for declaring victors. Readers should note that organizations producing ratings or retrospective margin lists may emphasize race closeness for research purposes but not track the moment a race was called, which is typically the remit of real-time election desks or state election authorities [6] [5].
5. Bottom line and what additional records are needed to answer fully
Based on the supplied analyses, the verifiable conclusion is that at least one House race (CA-13) was decided by under 0.1% and other districts, including OH-13 by one account, were similarly razor-thin; however, none of the provided sources supply the dates those contests were called or certified [1] [2]. To produce a definitive list of all 2024 U.S. House races decided by less than 1% and the dates they were called would require consulting state canvass certification records, contemporaneous media call logs (e.g., AP, major networks), and local election office announcements—documents not included in the current package. The existing material is sufficient to identify likely candidates for sub-1% outcomes but insufficient to answer the user’s question about call dates with the authority their question demands [3] [4].