What was the voter turnout rate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election and how did it compare to 2020?

1. What the headline numbers mean: two common measures of turnout

There is no single “turnout rate” used by all analysts. The Census Bureau’s CPS Voting and Registration Supplement reports 65.3% of the voting‑age population cast a ballot in 2024; that is the broad, widely cited figure for the election ^[1]. Academic and media analysts often use the voting‑eligible population (VEP) or validated‑voter measures; Pew’s validated‑voter analysis reports 64% turnout in 2024 and notes 66% in 2020, framing 2024 as a hair lower than 2020 ^[2]. USAFacts likewise cites the Census figure and says turnout fell about 1.5 percentage points from 2020 ^[3].

2. Why numbers differ: definitions, surveys and validation

Different groups count different denominators and use different methods. The CPS uses self‑reported voting among the civilian noninstitutionalized voting‑age population and yields 65.3% for 2024 ^[1]. Pew’s “validated voters” approach cross‑checks survey responses with state records and arrives at 64% for 2024 versus 66% in 2020 — a comparison that emphasizes actual recorded participation over self‑report alone ^[2]. The Election Lab and other outlets produce VEP‑based estimates that can differ by a point or two; media stories (AP, PBS) describe “sky‑high” turnout in 2024 that approached 2020 levels but stopped short of matching 2020 totals ^{[4] [5]}.

3. What the change from 2020 tells us — a small decline, not a collapse

Across authoritative sources the story is consistent: turnout in 2024 remained historically high but was modestly lower than 2020. Pew explicitly calls 2020 the highest turnout since 1908 (66%) and 2024 the second‑highest (64%), tying 1960 for second place ^[2]. USAFacts and the Census CPS quantify the drop as roughly 1.5 percentage points versus 2020 ^{[3] [1]}. Journalists and scholars therefore describe 2024 as “approaching” 2020’s record, not exceeding it ^[4].

4. Where turnout changed most — demographic and geographic patterns

Analysts report variation beneath the national headline. States show big differences: Ballotpedia lists states with turnout ranging from mid‑70s (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) to roughly 50–56% in the lowest states (Hawaii, Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, Texas) ^[6]. Pew and other analyses point to partisan and geographic shifts — for example, higher Republican turnout relative to Democrats in 2024 — and demographic shifts such as declines among Hispanic voters and a smaller youth turnout gap compared with 2020 depending on the dataset ^{[2] [3] [7]}.

5. Competing interpretations and hidden incentives

Different sources emphasize different causes. Pew attributes part of the pattern to differential partisan turnout — noting more of Trump’s 2020 voters returned in 2024 than Biden’s did — which frames the turnout story as a political advantage rather than a civic one ^[2]. Advocacy and research groups focused on youth turnout (CIRCLE) stress that youth participation in 2024 was close to 2020 but uneven by race and gender, an interpretation useful to organizations that mobilize young voters ^[7]. Media outlets highlighting “sky‑high” turnout underscore the competitiveness of the campaign and may aim to dramatize electoral stakes ^[4].

6. Limits of the record and what’s not in these reports

Available sources do not mention a single universally accepted “official” turnout rate that overrides CPS, VEP or validated‑voter estimates; instead they present complementary measures (not found in current reporting). Some outlets report raw ballots cast (more than 140–155 million in preliminary counts) but translating that into a percent depends on which denominator you choose — registered voters, VAP, or VEP — and different outlets use different baselines ^{[5] [7]}.

7. Bottom line for readers

Turnout in 2024 was historically high but slightly below 2020. The Census CPS reports 65.3% turnout in 2024; Pew’s validated‑voter method places 2024 at 64% versus 66% in 2020; and analysts summarize the gap as roughly 1–2 percentage points in favor of 2020 depending on measurement choices ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Which number you emphasize depends on the method you trust — and different methods tell slightly different stories about who showed up and why ^{[2] [6]}.