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What special election calendar is set for 2025–2026 and which districts are most competitive?
Executive summary
Multiple sources show a busy special-election calendar stretching across 2025 and into 2026: several House special elections occurred in 2025 (Florida CDs, Arizona, Virginia, Texas) with dates from April through November and some runoffs into January 2026 (e.g., a Texas runoff on January 31, 2026), and states have standing calendars listing potential special‑election slots through 2026 (examples: Virginia, Arizona, county/state calendars) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Election analysts and campaigns identify a relatively small number of truly competitive House districts for 2026 — Cook, Cook‑derived reporting and groups such as the DCCC and Brennan Center highlight a concentrated battleground of roughly a few dozen districts that will decide control, while redistricting in 2025 changed competitiveness in multiple states [5] [6] [7] [8].
1. What the 2025–2026 special‑election calendar looks like — a patchwork, not a single national timetable
There is no single nationwide “special‑election calendar”; instead, governors and local officials called special elections across 2025 and some calendars extend into 2026. Reported special‑general dates in 2025 include April 1 (Florida special elections), September 9 (Virginia), September 23 (Arizona), and November 4 (Texas and other locales), with at least one special runoff stretching to January 31, 2026 after a November 2025 special failed to produce a majority [1] [2] [4] [9]. State and county election offices publish master calendars that identify the usual possible special‑election dates in 2026 (for example, Arizona and Hennepin County list second‑Tuesday windows in 2026 and Arizona lists specific special general dates) [4] [10].
2. Who sets the dates: governors, secretaries of state and local jurisdictions
Special elections are called under state law and by executive officials; examples in 2025 include governors calling the dates (e.g., governors in Texas and Arizona set special‑general dates) and secretaries or county election offices publishing calendars of possible special‑election slots [9] [4] [10]. Local election calendars (Yakima County, Minnesota Secretary of State, Texas SOS) show filing windows, certification timelines and statutory deadlines that vary widely by jurisdiction [11] [12] [13].
3. Which congressional/senate/legislative special races happened or were scheduled in 2025 and spilled into 2026
Reporting lists at least six House special elections in 2025 during the 119th Congress, with outcomes and runoffs in several: Florida’s 1st and 6th special elections were held April 1, an Arizona special on September 23, a Virginia special on September 9, a Texas special on November 4 that led to a January 31, 2026 runoff, and additional state legislative special elections across states like Minnesota and Missouri had their own schedules [1] [2] [4] [13] [14].
4. Which districts and races are judged most competitive for 2026 — concentrated battlegrounds
Election analysts and campaign committees converge on the view that only a limited set of districts will decide the House in 2026. The Cook Political Report’s House ratings are the baseline professionals use to define “toss‑ups” and “leans” (Cook maintains an all‑district rating list) [5]. The DCCC publicly listed 35 Republican‑held districts as their 2026 “Districts in Play,” signaling where Democrats think they can flip seats [6]. Independent analysis and the Brennan Center emphasize that the number of truly competitive districts is small (roughly a few dozen toss‑ups/leans) and shrinking due to map changes [7].
5. How 2025 redistricting changed the battlefield and altered competitiveness
Mid‑decade or post‑2024 map changes in 2025 materially shifted several states’ competitive dynamics: California’s approved map aimed to gain Democratic seats, while Republican redistricting in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio is described as improving GOP chances in several districts — each change reshuffles which districts are competitive in 2026 [8] [15] [16]. Analysts warn that partisan mapmaking has reduced the universe of competitive districts, concentrating national attention and resources on far fewer races [7] [15].
6. Which specific districts were flagged as competitive in 2025 reporting — examples and caveats
Reporting called Florida’s 1st and 6th special elections unexpectedly competitive in April 2025 (local news coverage flagged fundraising and exposure dynamics), and national trackers and committees later pointed to roughly 27–50 districts nationwide that would be decisive in 2026 [17] [6] [7]. Available sources do not provide a single unified list of “most competitive” districts for the entire 2025–26 window; instead, different outlets and institutions publish overlapping but not identical rosters [5] [6] [7].
7. What this means for voters and campaigns — high concentration, high stakes
Because analysts say only a small fraction of House seats are true toss‑ups, campaigns will concentrate money and messaging in a focused set of districts and states made more or less competitive by 2025 map changes; that intensifies national attention on those districts while leaving most districts functionally noncompetitive [7] [6]. Voters in states that changed maps in 2025 should consult their state or county election calendars for filing deadlines and any special‑election dates, as procedures and timing vary [3] [11] [4].
Limitations: this summary synthesizes the provided reporting and official calendars; there is no single authoritative national special‑election schedule in the sources and different outlets publish differing competitiveness lists — for precise district‑by‑district ratings, consult Cook’s House Race Ratings and the DCCC’s playbook as the cycle develops [5] [6].