Which 2025–2026 special elections affect control of state legislatures or Congress?
Executive summary
Multiple 2025–2026 special elections have direct implications for control of both state legislatures and the U.S. House. In 2025 state legislative special elections numbered roughly 95 across 23 states and produced at least seven partisan flips by November — including Democrats breaking a Republican supermajority in the Mississippi Senate after Nov. 4 contests — while at the federal level several House special elections in late 2025 and early 2026 (Texas runoff Jan. 31, Tennessee Dec. 2, New Jersey April 16, 2026, and others) could tighten the razor-thin House margin [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. What’s at stake: why these specials matter now
Special elections change raw vote counts and can shift chamber control faster than regular cycles; in 2025 the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee highlighted that special contests decided majorities in multiple state chambers and protected Democratic control in Minnesota, Virginia and Pennsylvania [7]. Ballotpedia tallied roughly 95 state legislative specials in 23 states in 2025, and Ballotpedia/other trackers show seven seats had flipped partisan control by mid-November — concrete evidence that specials are altering legislative math this year [1] [2].
2. The state-level picture: volume and notable flips
Special elections in 2025 were unusually numerous: Ballotpedia counted 95 statewide through November across 23 states, and other trackers report 96 or more scheduled specials [1] [8]. The November 4, 2025, Mississippi special elections — nine for the Senate and five for the House called after a court-ordered redistricting remedy — produced Democratic gains that broke a Republican veto-proof Senate majority, an outcome that directly altered state governance [8] [2]. Ballotpedia also shows that as of November, seven special-election seat changes had occurred nationally in 2025 [2].
3. How single-seat changes can flip control
State chambers with narrow margins are vulnerable: a handful of special-election flips can convert a majority into a minority or remove a veto-proof supermajority, as happened in Mississippi when Democrats won two Senate seats and one House seat on Nov. 4 and thereby ended the GOP supermajority [8] [2]. The DLCC described several “majority-deciding” specials in 2025 that directly affected control, underscoring how organizers and parties treat these races as integral to statewide power [7].
4. The Congressional math: why a few special House races matter
At the federal level, the GOP’s House majority is narrow enough that interim vacancies and specials matter. Multiple special elections in late 2025 and into 2026 — including a Texas seat with a Jan. 31, 2026 runoff, Tennessee’s 7th on Dec. 2, 2025, and New Jersey’s 11th scheduled for April 16, 2026 — could change the operational margin in the 119th Congress or affect momentum ahead of 2026 [5] [4] [6]. News outlets and analysts note that Democrats see an opening to reduce or flip the Republican advantage via these contests [6] [9].
5. Specific federal specials to watch (timeline and impact)
Reporters and trackers list several important federal specials: Texas’s special that went to runoff on Jan. 31, 2026; Tennessee’s 7th held Dec. 2, 2025; and New Jersey’s 11th on April 16, 2026 — plus other vacancies expected to trigger contests in 2026 [5] [6] [4]. Ballotpedia and news outlets also flag at least six House specials in 2025 and multiple slated for 2026; the cumulative effect can tighten the House margin and shape committee control and agenda-setting in the months before the 2026 midterms [5] [10].
6. What sources agree on — and where they differ
Election trackers (Ballotpedia, 270toWin, NCSL summaries) converge that dozens of state legislative specials occurred in 2025 and that several flipped partisan control; they also agree multiple House specials are scheduled through spring 2026 [1] [3] [11] [4]. Differences are chiefly in framing and emphasis: partisan groups like the DLCC highlight Democratic defensive and pickup wins as strategic victories [7], while neutral trackers focus on counts and schedules [1] [3].
7. Limits of current reporting and what’s not in these sources
Available sources list the counts, notable outcomes and scheduled federal specials but do not provide a comprehensive, single-tableed projection tying every individual special to exact control scenarios in each chamber beyond the headline flips (available sources do not mention a consolidated, seat-by-seat control projection linking all 95 state specials and each federal special to final chamber control). Also, longer-term effects into the 2026 midterms are modeled by commentators but not definitively resolved in these reports [1] [5] [10].
8. Bottom line for political watchers
Special elections in 2025–2026 are not anecdotal: they are a strategic battlefield that already changed veto-proof status in Mississippi and have the potential to alter margins in state chambers and the U.S. House before the 2026 general elections. Trackers — Ballotpedia, 270toWin, and major news outlets — should be consulted continuously because schedules, runoffs and vacancies will keep altering the arithmetic [2] [1] [3] [6].