What special elections are scheduled for 2025–2026 that could change House control?
Executive summary
Multiple special elections in 2025–2026 are active and could influence control of the U.S. House because the GOP majority is narrow; at least six special House contests were expected in 2025 and three more are listed for 2026, with several high-profile races (Tennessee’s 7th, a Houston-area Texas seat, and a New Jersey vacancy) singled out as potentially decisive [1] [2] [3] [4]. Political observers and outlets warn that a handful of flips or an additional resignation could change committee control or the chamber majority before the 2026 midterms [5] [6].
1. The arithmetic that makes every vacancy matter
Republicans hold a thin House majority after 2024, and analysts say a small number of special-election losses could threaten GOP control; commentators note the House margin is “exceptionally thin” and that multiple 2025 special elections “could alter committee control and funding speed” — meaning a flip or two would have outsized operational consequences in Washington [5].
2. What’s already on the calendar: 2025 contests to watch
At least six special elections were expected during the 119th Congress in 2025, including high-profile contests in Tennessee’s 7th District, multiple Texas vacancies (Houston-area seat with a likely runoff), and an Arizona and Virginia special, among others; several of those races have already drawn heavy national spending and attention [1] [2] [6] [7].
3. The Tennessee 7th: a bellwether with national attention
Tennessee’s 7th District special drew national attention as an off-year test of Democratic momentum; news outlets and AP coverage described it as the fifth special election of the year and emphasized how a Democratic overperformance in a traditionally GOP district would signal vulnerabilities for the Republican House majority [7] [4].
4. Texas runoff and a Houston-area seat that stayed open for months
A heavily Democratic Houston-area seat remained vacant after the incumbent’s death and produced a crowded field leading to a runoff scheduled for January 31, 2026; that prolonged vacancy kept a Democratic seat off the floor for nearly a year and illustrated how state scheduling and local rules can extend the period a seat is unfilled [1] [6] [4].
5. New Jersey and other forthcoming 2026 specials
AP and other reporting show an additional seat in northern New Jersey vacated by Mikie Sherrill will be filled next April, and at least three special House elections are scheduled in 2026 — including Georgia’s 14th after Marjorie Taylor Greene’s announced resignation — meaning majority calculus can shift well into 2026 ahead of the full midterms [4] [3] [8].
6. Special elections are noisy but imperfect predictors
Experts and editorial coverage caution that special-election results are not a mechanical forecast of midterm outcomes: turnout patterns, unique local dynamics, and candidate quality often produce swings that don’t always repeat in general elections. Still, political scientists note that flips in specials can foreshadow broader trends and motivate resource shifts from national parties [9] [7].
7. Legal and administrative factors that shape timing and impact
State laws and governors control how quickly special elections occur — examples include Georgia’s governor scheduling runoffs and Texas’s redistricting and scheduling choices — which can lengthen vacancies or force runoffs that delay a seat’s return to the chamber and therefore influence which party holds working majorities on key votes [10] [2] [6].
8. Competing narratives: Democrats’ momentum vs. GOP resilience
Democrats point to multiple special-election gains in 2025 as evidence of momentum and possible paths to retake the House; Republicans counter that special-election electorates are atypical and that strong candidates and turnout can hold vulnerable seats. Both narratives are present in reporting: Democrats tout recent wins and narrow GOP margins, while Republican strategists emphasize the distinct nature of special-election turnout [11] [7] [9].
9. What to watch next — metrics and tipping points
Monitor net seat changes from confirmed special-election results, the number of remaining vacant seats, and any further high-profile resignations; outlets and trackers list at least six 2025 specials and three or more scheduled in 2026, making the sequence of upcoming runoffs and April 2026 contests the practical tipping points for control before November 2026 [1] [2] [3] [4].
Limitations and sourcing note: this briefing relies solely on the provided reporting and trackers. Available sources list the key contests and their dates and describe political significance, but they do not provide a single definitive list of every conceivable 2025–2026 special that might occur if new vacancies appear; additional resignations or deaths would change the dynamics [1] [3] [4].