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How did turnout in the 2025 California special election compare to 2022 and 2020?
Executive Summary
Turnout in the 2025 California statewide special election appears mixed and incomplete: immediate reporting shows moderate returns (about 5.9 million ballots reported and roughly 10%–26% of mailed ballots returned in different snapshots), but officials had not certified a final statewide turnout percentage as of early November 2025, making direct numeric comparison to 2022 and 2020 impossible from available reports [1] [2] [3]. News accounts and data vendors describe higher engagement in certain counties and among older, white voters, and attribute elevated interest to high-profile Proposition 50, yet the datasets cited stop short of giving a finalized turnout rate to compare with the full 2022 and 2020 elections [4] [1] [2].
1. Why reporters say turnout "looked up" — but numbers were incomplete
Contemporary press coverage in early November 2025 emphasized rising activity at vote centers and increases in early and in-person participation relative to recent special elections, with Los Angeles County voting described as steady and operations largely smooth; election officials had not yet published a formal overall turnout percentage, and outlets warned results remained unofficial until certification [4] [3]. This narrative frames turnout as stronger than typical low-turnout special contests because of visible lines, higher in-person traffic, and focused interest in Proposition 50, yet journalists and county officials repeatedly noted the absence of a single finalized turnout figure to anchor comparisons to prior general elections. The takeaway is that anecdotal operational indicators and provisional ballot return counts suggested higher engagement, but the absence of certified statewide turnout forced reporters to couch claims in caution [4] [3].
2. Ballot-return snapshots paint a mixed picture — 10% to 26% figures
Data snapshots published by outlets and a private firm show widely varying interim return rates: one report noted over 5.9 million ballots returned — framed as roughly 26% of mailed ballots in that dataset — while a political-data firm estimated about 10% of mailed ballots returned, with party breakdowns showing roughly 12% returns among Democrats and Republicans and 7% among independents [1] [2]. These differences reflect timing, methodology, and which mailings were counted: newsrooms were aggregating county tallies that update continuously, while the private firm provided an earlier "one-in-ten" snapshot and demographic skews (older voters and white voters more represented) [2]. Because these figures are interim and derived from different baselines, they cannot be combined into a single statewide turnout percentage for direct historical comparison [1] [2].
3. How this compares to 2022 and 2020 — context, not direct numbers
None of the available reports produced a finalized 2025 turnout percentage to directly compare with statewide turnout in 2022 and 2020; press analyses instead placed 2025 turnout in historical context, noting that special-election turnout historically falls well below general-election turnout and that 2020 was an unusually high year [5] [6]. One source emphasized that 2024 turnout declined from 2020 by roughly 1.7 million ballots and that 2020 represented an outlier in turnout intensity, implying that even a stronger-than-usual 2025 special election likely would still differ substantially from 2020 general-election levels [5]. The reporting therefore offers comparative perspective — that 2020 was high and special contests are typically lower — but provides no certified 2025 percentage to quantify where 2025 sits relative to 2022 or 2020 [5] [6].
4. Competing interpretations and what to watch for in certification
Observers and data vendors advanced different interpretations: local reportage highlighted on-the-ground increases and Proposition 50’s mobilizing effect, while analytic snapshots from Political Data Inc. emphasized low overall return rates in early waves and strong demographic skewing toward older, white voters — a mix that can amplify headline issues without producing broad turnout parity with general elections [4] [2]. Because the Secretary of State’s office scheduled certification for December 12, 2025, the authoritative answer on how 2025 turnout compares numerically to 2022 and 2020 will come only after counties finalize and the state certifies results; until then the record contains operational anecdotes, interim return-rate estimates, and historical context pointing to special elections being lower than 2020’s exceptional turnout [3] [5]. Readers should treat the early snapshots as directional rather than definitive and rely on the post-certification statewide turnout figures for precise comparison [1] [7].