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How did 2025 California special election turnout compare to the 2024 general election turnout?
Executive Summary
As of early November 2025, California’s special election has returned roughly 6.6 million mail ballots — about 29% of ballots mailed — with some analysts projecting final turnout around 50%, while the certified 2024 general election saw 16,140,044 votes (71.43% of registered voters). A direct, final comparison is not yet possible because the special-election total was still being reported as “TBD,” but current returns are substantially lower than the 2024 general-election total and percentage [1] [2] [3].
1. What supporters and trackers are saying about turnout momentum — the numbers on the table that matter now
Data trackers in early November 2025 report 29% of mailed ballots returned (about 6.6 million of ~23 million mailed), and Political Data Inc. framed that as roughly 40% of an expected final vote already in with a projected finish near 50% turnout [1] [4]. The special-election official turnout field in some public trackers remained TBD, signaling incomplete certification and continuing returns [2]. These figures show strong early mail activity concentrated in older and white voters — for example, trackers reported 54% of returned votes from those 65+ and 64% from white voters so far — which shapes interpretation of both raw participation and likely outcomes [1]. Those on-the-ground tallies matter because they set the baseline for whether the special election can approach or exceed typical special-election participation levels in California.
2. The unmistakable benchmark: how 2024’s general-election turnout was recorded and why it matters
The California Secretary of State certified the November 5, 2024 statewide vote with 16,140,044 ballots cast, representing 71.43% of registered voters, a clear, final benchmark for comparing subsequent contests [3]. Analysts also documented a drop in 2024 turnout from the 2020 high-water mark — roughly 1.7 million fewer votes than 2020 — which contextualizes how exceptional presidential-year peaks distort cross-year comparisons [5]. The 2024 certification provides an authoritative, fixed denominator for turnout comparisons; every special-election headline about “higher” or “lower” turnout must be measured against this certified total and the different electorate dynamics of off-year or issue-focused contests.
3. Head-to-head: direct numeric comparison and what the numbers mean right now
Comparing early 2025 special-election returns (≈6.6 million ballots, ~29% returned) to the certified 2024 general-election total (16,140,044 votes, 71.43% of registrants) shows the special election currently well below the 2024 turnout both in raw votes and percentage terms [1] [3]. Even the Political Data Inc. projection for the special election to finish around 50% turnout would leave it substantially under the 71.43% general-election rate. Historical special-election turnouts in California have varied widely — past special contests have seen participation from the high 20s to the low 60s percentiles — so while an eventual special-election turnout near 50% would be high relative to many specials, it would still be lower than the 2024 general-election benchmark [2].
4. Who’s voting and how that skews comparison — demographic and partisan contours
Early returns show disproportionate participation by older voters and white voters, with Democrats modestly outpacing Republicans in returned ballots in these trackers; these patterns influence both the policy and partisan interpretation of turnout gaps [1] [4]. Special elections typically draw a different electorate than general elections: voters in special contests tend to be more engaged, older, and more partisan than the broader electorate in a presidential-year general. That means raw turnout comparisons can mislead unless adjusted for demographic makeup and ballot-mailing patterns; the observed demographic skew in 2025 early returns suggests the special-election electorate is not a microcosm of the 2024 general electorate [1].
5. Unpack the limits, projections, and what to watch next before declaring a definitive comparison
The official special-election total was still TBD in some state trackers even as late ballots continued to arrive, which makes any final, authoritative comparison premature until certification [2]. Multiple outlets and data shops offered projections (e.g., Political Data Inc.’s 50% finish), but those are estimates and should be treated as such; the certified 2024 numbers remain the only fixed comparator [4] [1] [3]. Watch for the Secretary of State’s final certified special-election totals and post-election Statement of Vote to confirm final turnout and demographic breakdowns; until then, the clearest fact is that current returns are far lower than the 2024 general-election total and percentage, and even optimistic projections would not close the gap to the 2024 certified turnout [3] [1].