How do 2025 deportation numbers for convicted criminals compare to prior years (2020–2024)?
Executive summary
2025 removals are roughly in the same ballpark as 2024 in absolute terms—independent analysts estimate about 310,000–315,000 removals for 2025 compared with roughly 285,000 in 2024—while the administration’s public totals and counting methods have produced much larger headline figures that analysts question [1] [2] [3]. Crucially, the composition of removals shifted in 2025: a smaller share were people with criminal convictions and a much larger share had no recorded criminal conviction or only pending charges, producing a disconnect between stated priorities and operational outcomes [4] [5] [6].
1. Numbers: modest growth in removals, big disputes over the headline totals
Independent data-based estimates put FY2025 removals at roughly 310,000–315,000, only modestly above FY2024’s ~285,000 removals, while the Department of Homeland Security and other administration releases have claimed much larger cumulative or calendar-year totals that analysts and journalists say are not directly comparable to historical counts without detailed methodology [1] [2] [3]. Journalistic reconstructions using ICE biweekly datasets and academic trackers find ICE ERO effectuated on the order of 329,000 removals for the FY2025 year in some tabulations, and outlets like The Guardian and Brookings have noted that counting conventions (which agencies are included and which months are counted) materially change the headline number [3] [7] [1].
2. Composition: fewer deportations of people with convictions, more of people without convictions
Multiple data sources and independent analyses converge on one clear change: the share of people removed in 2025 who had criminal convictions dropped while the share with no convictions—or only pending charges—increased, meaning that a larger fraction of removals were of non‑convicted immigration violators or recent border crossers [4] [5] [8]. Migration Policy and prison‑justice researchers document that among ICE detainees and those deported in 2025, the percent with criminal convictions fell compared to late 2024, and state-level analyses show many arrests involved pending charges or nonviolent, low-level offenses such as traffic infractions [4] [5] [9].
3. Conflicting narratives: administration emphasis vs. operational reality
The administration’s public messaging emphasizes targeting “criminal illegal aliens,” even releasing figures saying 70% of ICE arrests are of people charged with or convicted of crimes, but watchdogs and data analysts point out that ICE’s detention population and removals data show a large and growing portion without convictions—creating a narrative gap between policy statements and the datasets researchers are archiving and interrogating [10] [4] [6]. The New York Times and other outlets found that deportations of people with violent convictions rose in rate terms in certain monthly comparisons, while deportations of people with no criminal record rose far faster in proportional terms—underscoring how both absolute and relative measures can be wielded to tell different stories [2].
4. Methodology matters: who counts as a “criminal” and which removals are tallied
Differences in what is counted—expedited removals at the border, voluntary self‑deportations, third‑country removals, or ICE ERO effectuations—drive much of the reporting disagreement; experts warn that DHS press figures sometimes aggregate voluntary departures and returns that other datasets exclude, and independent researchers recomputing ICE spreadsheets arrive at lower but still elevated totals for 2025 [10] [3] [1]. Moreover, the operational reality that many people are arrested from local jails before charges are resolved means “criminality” as a snapshot metric can overstate or understate past convictions depending on timing and definition [5] [11].
5. Bottom line: 2025 is not a simple uptick in convicted‑criminal removals
The evidence indicates that while overall removals in 2025 are higher than 2024 by some measures, the increase is not driven primarily by a dramatic rise in removals of people with established criminal convictions; instead, the administration expanded removals overall and shifted enforcement tactics so that a larger slice of removals involved people without convictions or with unresolved charges, producing contested headline claims and real policy implications for who is being deported [1] [4] [5]. Sources disagree on magnitudes and on whether violent‑conviction removals doubled in the aggregate, so the most defensible conclusion is that 2025 saw modestly more removals but a lower proportion of convicted criminals than in earlier years 2020–2024, with counting conventions and political messaging shaping public perception [2] [3] [9].