How do 2025 deportation numbers compare to previous years (2020–2024) overall and for Muslim-majority-country nationals?
Executive summary
Fiscal‑year and calendar‑year 2025 saw a sharp escalation in U.S. deportation activity compared with 2020–2024, but exact totals vary widely between government statements, independent researchers and advocacy tracking—with estimates ranging from roughly 340,000 removals in FY2025 (MPI estimate) to government claims of more than 605,000 departures since January 20, 2025 (Migration Policy Institute; DHS) [1] [2]. Reporting also documents a large increase in enforcement flights and expanded removal mechanisms, while available public datasets remain fragmented through late 2024, limiting precise, nationally disaggregated tallies for specific nationalities or religion-linked cohorts [3] [4] [5].
1. A clear upward trajectory overall: 2025 versus 2020–2024
Multiple sources place 2025 well above the deportation levels of the previous five years: Migration Policy Institute calculates about 340,000 ICE deportations in FY2025 based on the latest public figures, a level substantially higher than FY2024 totals [1], and independent trackers such as ICE Flight Monitor report a 62 percent increase in enforcement flights through September 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, signaling intensified operational tempo [4]; non‑academic aggregations likewise project 2025 as potentially the most active year in recent memory with annualized rates exceeding prior years [6].
2. Conflicting tallies and political framing: why the totals diverge
Official counts and advocacy estimates disagree because they measure different things and serve different narratives: DHS’s year‑end public messaging claimed “more than 605,000 deportations” since January 20, 2025, a figure presented in a partisan press release that also tallied voluntary departures and expansive enforcement outcomes [2], while MPI’s 340,000 estimate focuses on ICE removals in FY2025 using available government datasets and conservative public‑data methodology [1], and human‑rights monitors emphasize flight and transfer metrics to document operational expansion and due‑process concerns [4]; the ICE public dashboards themselves were last issued with full detail through December 2024, leaving a data gap analysts must bridge with indirect indicators [3] [5].
3. The record on Muslims and nationals of Muslim‑majority countries: policy signals, limited numeric breakdowns
Reporting shows explicit policy moves targeting nationals from several Muslim‑majority countries—most notably travel and visa restrictions covering a list that includes Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen among others—but none of the provided sources supplies a comprehensive, tabulated count of deportations specifically for “Muslim‑majority‑country nationals” across 2025 comparable to the overall totals [7] [8]. International reporting and policy trackers note increased returns to Afghanistan in 2024–2025 in multiple Western jurisdictions and diplomatic steps to facilitate removals, which signal elevated returns of nationals from conflict‑affected Muslim‑majority states, but precise U.S. deportation counts by those nationalities are not published in the cited datasets [9] [6].
4. Interpretation, agendas and key caveats
The magnitude of increase in 2025 is unmistakable across independent monitors and government statements, yet interpretation depends on methodology: advocacy groups highlight the human‑rights implications of expanded flights and expedited removals [4], NGOs and think tanks point to a large numerical jump in ICE removals based on public data reconstructions [1], while the administration’s own communications use higher, aggregated tallies that mix forced removals with voluntary departures to bolster claims of border management success [2]; critically, the federal ICE dashboards with person‑level detail stop at the end of 2024, and the Deportation Data Project indicates more recent ICE releases are being collected but do not resolve all national‑origin disaggregation needs for 2025 [3] [5].
5. Bottom line
Deportations in 2025 were substantially higher than in 2020–2024 by multiple independent indicators and administrative claims, but precise totals differ by source—MPI’s ~340,000 FY2025 estimate [1], NGO and media flight‑tracking showing major year‑over‑year increases [4], and DHS assertions exceeding 600,000 since January 20, 2025 [2]—and the available materials do not provide a single, authoritative breakdown isolating deportations of nationals from Muslim‑majority countries across the same timeframe, only clear policy signals and scattered evidence that such nationals were specifically targeted by some 2025 measures [7] [9].