Which governor races flipped from Republican to Democrat in November 2025?
Executive summary
Democrats flipped one governorship from Republican to Democrat in November 2025: Virginia, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, taking the seat held by outgoing Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin [1] [2]. In New Jersey, Democrats held the open seat when Mikie Sherrill won, so that race did not constitute a GOP-to-Democratic flip [3] [4].
1. Virginia: The single GOP-to-Democratic flip, by the numbers
Abigail Spanberger’s victory in Virginia on November 4, 2025, is explicitly described in multiple reports as a Democratic gain: Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by roughly 527,271 votes and by a margin described as a landslide and “the widest margin for a Democrat since 1961” [1]. PBS and other outlets framed the win as a flip of the governorship from outgoing Republican Glenn Youngkin to the Democratic Party, noting it follows Virginia’s pattern of electing a governor of the party opposite the sitting president in the post‑presidential year [2] [5].
2. New Jersey: Democratic hold, not a flip
Although New Jersey’s open governorship was a competitive national story, Mikie Sherrill — the Democratic nominee — won the November 2025 race and succeeded term‑limited Democrat Phil Murphy, which constitutes a Democratic hold rather than a party flip [3] [4]. Ballotpedia and other aggregators describe Sherrill’s election as the party retaining the seat [6].
3. How major trackers and news outlets described the overall map
Summary reporting and aggregation sites characterized 2025 as a favorable cycle for Democrats in the small set of contests that year: they note Democrats “flipped the governorship of Virginia and held onto the governorship of New Jersey,” contributing to broader Democratic gains in state legislatures and other statewide races [5]. Ballotpedia’s post‑election materials list Spanberger’s win as a Democratic gain and Sherrill’s as a Democratic retention [6].
4. Why only one flip matters more than usual in 2025
The 2025 off‑year featured only two gubernatorial contests (Virginia and New Jersey), so each outcome carried outsized symbolic weight. With Virginia switching parties while New Jersey stayed Democratic, the net change in governorships from this cycle was a single GOP→Democratic flip [7] [5]. Analysts and outlets framed the result as part of a broader “blue wave” in which Democrats made gains down ballot in several states in 2025 [5] [2].
5. Competing interpretations and political context
Some outlets emphasized Spanberger’s margin — noted as unusually large for a Democrat in Virginia — while others placed the result in the context of local dynamics (economy, immigration, abortion were cited as top voter concerns in Virginia polls) and candidate quality [1]. National outlets also drew comparisons to 2024 presidential performance in these states when assessing the significance of the flips and holds [3] [8]. Available sources do not mention other gubernatorial flips beyond Virginia in the November 2025 cycle [5] [6].
6. What to watch next and limitations of the record
Because only two states held governor races in 2025, the immediate electoral impact was limited in scope; nonetheless, analysts treated Virginia’s flip as an early signal ahead of 2026 midterms [9]. Note limitations: the provided sources consistently document Virginia as the lone Republican→Democratic flip and New Jersey as a Democratic hold, but they do not provide exhaustive county‑level breakdowns or post‑certification legal challenges in this dataset — for those details consult state boards of election or full AP certification notices [6] [10].
Summary conclusion: Based on the available reporting and election‑result aggregations you supplied, Virginia was the only governor’s race that flipped from Republican to Democrat in November 2025; New Jersey stayed Democratic with Mikie Sherrill’s win [1] [4] [6].