Which candidates are leading recent 2026 california governor primary polls?
Executive summary
Recent statewide polls show a crowded 2026 California governor primary with no dominant favorite: Katie Porter leads some Democratic samples while Republicans Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco appear near the top in several surveys. Emerson College polls from August and September 2025 showed Porter first among all voters (18% in August; 16% in a later release) with Hilton second (12% then 10%), while UC Berkeley/IGS and other trackers at times put Bianco slightly ahead with roughly 11–13% support; large undecided shares (around 38–44%) accompany all snapshots [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. A fractured field and shifting leaders
Polling portrays a highly fractured contest rather than a stable frontrunner. Emerson’s August 2025 survey found Katie Porter leading the statewide primary at 18%, followed by Steve Hilton at 12% and Chad Bianco at 7%, with 38% undecided—evidence that early leads are modest and fragile [1]. Later Emerson reporting and other outlets show Porter still strong among Democrats while Hilton or Bianco surge in mixed samples, underscoring volatility [2] [5].
2. Republicans punching above historical weight
Several recent polls indicate Republicans outperforming what California’s partisan baseline might predict. The Berkeley IGS poll released in November (fielded Oct. 20–27) found Bianco at about 13% among registered voters, giving him a narrow edge in that survey; local reportage and trend pieces note Republicans “slightly” leading in some snapshots [3] [4]. Newsweek and other outlets likewise flagged polls putting Bianco or other GOP hopefuls near the top of crowded ballots [6].
3. The undecided vote is the story
Across the referenced polls, undecided voters form the plurality in many samples—Emerson reported roughly 38% undecided in August 2025, and Berkeley’s late-October work showed 44% undecided—meaning headline percentages reflect name recognition more than hardened support [1] [3]. With top-two primaries in California, late movement by undecideds can dramatically reshape which two candidates advance [5].
4. Methodology and timing matter
The Emerson College samples (n≈1,000 active registered voters; MOE ≈ ±3) were fielded in August and mid‑September 2025 and report small leads for Porter or Hilton depending on timing; Berkeley IGS’s larger Oct. 20–27 sample of 8,141 registered voters produced different leaderboards, showing Bianco ahead in that window [1] [3]. Different samples (likely primary voters vs. all registered, weighting, and question wording) explain divergent outcomes [2] [1] [3].
5. Who’s in the race—and why that matters
The race features more than two dozen declared candidates as of November 2025, including high-profile Democrats (Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, Katie Porter, Tony Thurmond) and Republicans/commentators like Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco; the crowded field increases fragmentation and the chance of cross‑party pairings in June’s top-two primary [7] [8]. Multiple credible contenders within one party dilute vote shares and make early polling snapshots especially unstable [7].
6. Competing narratives in media coverage
National and local outlets emphasize different takeaways: some stories focus on Porter as the Democratic frontrunner in early Emerson data [1] [5]; others highlight GOP momentum and Bianco’s narrow poll leads in Berkeley IGS work and commissioned polls [3] [6] [4]. These narratives reflect selective use of polls conducted at different times and with different samples—readers should treat single polls as momentary terrain, not destiny [1] [3] [6].
7. What’s not in the current reporting
Available sources do not mention more recent (post‑Nov 2025) statewide or district-level polls, candidate fundraising comparisons, or internal campaign polling that could shift name recognition and standing. They also do not offer a consensus projection for which two candidates will top the June 2026 primary (not found in current reporting) [2] [3] [1].
8. Practical takeaway for readers and voters
At present, polling shows a three‑way cluster—Katie Porter among Democrats and Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco drawing substantial cross‑section support—but large undecided pools mean the race remains open and fluid. Voters should watch poll methodology and timing (Emerson vs. Berkeley IGS differences) and expect headlines to flip as campaigns target undecided voters and as name recognition changes [1] [3] [5].
Sources cited: Emerson College Polling (Aug.–Sept. 2025) [1] [2]; UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reporting and coverage [3] [4]; overview and candidate list reporting [7] [8]; national analyses [6] [5].