What are the polling trends and candidate lineups in Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine and Ohio Senate races for 2026?
Executive summary
The 2026 Senate map centers on several pivot states where incumbency, retirements and competitive electorates converge: Georgia’s Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff faces a concerted GOP primary fight while polling models show the state remains close, North Carolina has an open seat with Roy Cooper favored for Democrats and Michael Whatley leading Republicans in early matchups, Michigan is a hot open contest after Sen. Gary Peters announced he will not run, Maine remains a marquee battleground around Republican Sen. Susan Collins, and Ohio’s special election is newly consequential after a high‑profile resignation and appointment shuffle; these assessments are reflected across forecasting and polling aggregators [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. Georgia — Incumbent defense in a narrowly divided state
Jon Ossoff is running for re‑election as the Democratic incumbent in a state that President Trump narrowly won in 2024, and forecasters flag Ossoff’s seat as vulnerable but contestable, with RaceToTheWH tracking daily polling averages and a competitive GOP primary that includes multiple House members and other figures vying for the nomination [1] [6]; national models list Georgia among races where turnout dynamics and candidate quality could flip the outcome [7].
2. North Carolina — Open seat and high‑profile names shaping early polls
Sen. Thom Tillis’s decision not to run opened a classic swing state contest where former Governor Roy Cooper is widely expected to clinch the Democratic nomination while Michael Whatley — a former state GOP chair and national operative — leads on the Republican side, and The New York Times and polling aggregators show early polling prompting Democrats to see North Carolina as one of their top pickup opportunities [2] [4] [7].
3. Michigan — A wide open battlefield after Peters’ retirement
Michigan’s Senate race turned from an incumbency defense to a wide open scramble after Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not seek another term, producing a crowded, contested field in both parties and making Michigan a focal point for both national parties and forecasters who rate it among the more competitive contests on the map [3] [6] [7].
4. Maine — Susan Collins stands as the Republican stand‑alone in a blue‑leaning state
Maine’s 2026 campaign is distinct because Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican incumbent defending a seat in a state that voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, and national trackers and encyclopedic overviews flag Collins’s seat as perennially competitive due to Maine’s blue tilt despite her past survival in Democratic waves [3] [8].
5. Ohio — Special election dynamics and new competitiveness
Ohio’s Class 3 special election, prompted by the resignation of Sen. J.D. Vance and subsequent appointment dynamics, has elevated the state’s profile; trackers list Ohio among the contested states and polling portals maintain active pages for Ohio Senate polling even as candidate lineups and the appointment-versus‑election narrative shape early forecasts [5] [9] [7].
Conclusion — what the polling and lineups collectively say
Across these five states, public polling and model‑based forecasters converge on a simple pattern: open seats and retiring incumbents (Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio) amplify volatility, contested GOP primaries and a closely split 2024 presidential result (Georgia, Maine) mean margins will be tight, and national models identify Maine and North Carolina as top Democratic pickup opportunities while treating Georgia and Michigan as must‑watch races that could swing control depending on turnout and candidate quality [7] [3] [10]. Available sources supply high‑level polling averages and candidate rosters but do not provide comprehensive, state‑by‑state numerical polling trends in this package; for granular, time‑series polling numbers consult the dedicated polling pages and averages tracked by RaceToTheWH and 270toWin and the aggregated poll pages at RealClearPolling [11] [12] [9].