Which U.S. Senate seats are contested in the 2026 midterm elections by state?
Executive summary
All regularly scheduled Class 2 Senate seats (33 states) are on the 2026 ballot, plus two special elections — in Florida and Ohio — bringing the total to either 35 seats according to several trackers [1] [2]. Sources agree that the 2026 map includes the full slate of Class 2 seats and two Class 3 vacancies created by resignations, and that the map is broadly considered favorable to Republicans [3] [1] [4].
1. What is on the ballot: the technical picture
The 2026 U.S. Senate elections are primarily the 33 Class 2 seats that come up on the normal six‑year cycle; reporting across Wikipedia, Ballotpedia and other trackers notes that two additional Class 3 seats will be filled by special election in 2026 — Florida (Marco Rubio’s vacated seat) and Ohio (JD Vance’s vacated seat) — producing 35 contests in many public counts [3] [1] [2]. Those special elections are scheduled concurrently with the November 3, 2026 general election and will fill the remaining two years of the original terms [1].
2. Which states are involved: a practical guide
Available sources list the map as “all 33 Class 2 seats and two Class 3 seats” but do not provide a single consolidated state-by-state list in the excerpts provided here; Ballotpedia and Wikipedia host interactive maps and tables that show which specific state seats are on the ballot [3] [5]. For a definitive per‑state roster, those interactive resources are the cited places in current reporting [5] [3].
3. Why Florida and Ohio are special this year
Florida’s Class 3 seat is on the 2026 ballot as a special election because Marco Rubio resigned in 2025 to become U.S. Secretary of State and an appointee is serving until the special election [1]. Ohio’s Class 3 seat likewise requires a special election after JD Vance resigned to become vice president in 2025; an appointee is serving there as well until voters choose someone to complete the term [1]. Both special elections are explicitly noted in multiple sources as adding to the usual Class 2 slate [1] [2].
4. Partisan balance and political context
Republicans entered 2026 holding a narrow Senate majority; analysts and law‑firm briefs cited here say Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 47 (including two independents who caucus with Democrats), and that 22 of the seats up in 2026 are currently held by Republicans while Democrats defend the rest — a map that many forecasters judge favorable to Republicans [2] [3] [4]. Thompson Coburn’s analysis and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both frame Democrats as needing net gains (for example, four seats per one legal industry note) to capture a majority, and multiple outlets label key targets and toss‑ups such as Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina [4] [6].
5. Close races and states to watch
Nonpartisan and media analysis singled out specific competitive contests in 2026: Georgia and Michigan are repeatedly mentioned as early toss‑ups; Maine (Susan Collins’s seat) is flagged as uniquely consequential because it is a Republican seat in a state won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024; New Hampshire, North Carolina and Minnesota also appear on shortlists of vulnerable or competitive races in the coverage sampled [7] [6] [8]. Ballotpedia’s previews add that several Democratic-held seats were won narrowly last cycle and thus draw particular attention [9].
6. Limitations and where to go next
The excerpts provided do not give a single, state‑by‑state enumeration within this dataset — interactive maps and the long-form pages on Ballotpedia and Wikipedia contain that granular list and are explicitly cited by sources here [5] [3]. If you want a printable per‑state checklist of which seats are on the ballot, consult the Ballotpedia or Wikipedia pages referenced above for their tables and interactive maps [5] [3].
7. Competing perspectives and hidden agendas
Forecast services and partisan outlets interpret the map through different lenses: neutral trackers (Ballotpedia, Wikipedia) present the structural facts and interactive state lists [3] [5]; forecasting shops (RacetoTheWH, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, RaceToTheWH) emphasize probabilistic ratings and likely targets, sometimes reflecting methodological choices that favor incumbency or historic midterm patterns [10] [6]. Industry analyses (Thompson Coburn) frame the narrative as a Republican opportunity, a viewpoint consistent with several non‑profit forecasters but serving different audiences — legal clients or donors — and should be read as contextual analysis rather than definitive outcome prediction [4].
If you want, I can extract a consolidated state list from the Ballotpedia or Wikipedia pages cited here and deliver a plain per‑state checklist of the 2026 Senate contests.