Fact check: Who are the Democratic and Republican frontrunners for the 2028 presidential election?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available polling data and analyses, the 2028 presidential race frontrunners are beginning to emerge, though the field remains fluid:

Democratic Frontrunners:

• Pete Buttigieg leads multiple assessments as the Democratic frontrunner, with 16% support in an Emerson College poll ^{[1] [2]}
• Kamala Harris follows closely with 13% support ^{[1] [2]}
• Gavin Newsom ranks third with 12% support and is actively considering a run, having made appearances in early primary states like South Carolina ^{[2] [3]}
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is ranked as the top contender by The Hill, citing her charisma, authenticity, and potential to inherit Bernie Sanders' progressive leadership mantle ^[4]

Republican Frontrunners:

• JD Vance dominates the Republican field with 46% support, significantly ahead of other potential candidates ^[2]
• Marco Rubio holds second place with 12% support ^[2]
• Ron DeSantis rounds out the top three with 9% support ^[2]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal several important considerations not immediately apparent:

• Early stage uncertainty: Multiple sources emphasize that many potential candidates have not definitively committed to running, with figures like Gavin Newsom stating he may not decide until after midterm elections ^[3]
• Broader Democratic field: Beyond the polling leaders, several other Democrats are being mentioned as potential candidates, including Andy Beshear, Cory Booker, Wes Moore, and Gina Raimondo ^{[5] [6]}
• Republican field depth: While JD Vance leads significantly, the Republican field includes other potential candidates like Greg Abbott, Katie Britt, and Ted Cruz ^[5]
• Geographic and ideological diversity: The potential Democratic field spans from progressive figures like AOC to moderate governors like Andy Beshear, who has expressed interest in uniting the country ^[6]
• Impact of current events: Political violence and national stage exposure are already influencing potential 2028 candidates' profiles ^[7]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself contains no misinformation, as it simply asks for identification of frontrunners. However, several important caveats emerge from the analyses:

• Polling limitations: The frontrunner status is based on limited early polling data, and the political landscape will likely shift significantly before 2028
• Media framing differences: Different outlets emphasize different candidates - while polling data shows Buttigieg leading, The Hill's analysis positions AOC as the top contender based on different criteria (charisma, crowd-drawing ability) ^[4]
• Incomplete Republican coverage: The analyses provide less comprehensive coverage of Republican potential candidates compared to Democrats, which could create an incomplete picture of the GOP field
• Temporal bias: These assessments reflect the current political moment and may not account for how dramatically the landscape could change over the next four years before the 2028 election cycle begins in earnest