Is ICE arresting a majority of criminal illegal immigrants
Executive summary
No — independent datasets and multiple fact-checkers show that a large and growing share of people arrested and detained by ICE in 2025–2026 did not have a U.S. criminal conviction, and several analyses put the proportion of non‑convicted arrestees above 60 percent at points during that period [1] [2] [3].
1. What the agencies claim: “70% are criminal” — the official line
The Department of Homeland Security and ICE have repeatedly framed recent enforcement as focused on the “worst of the worst,” issuing statements that “70% of ICE arrests are of criminal illegal aliens with charges or convictions in the United States” and publishing case examples of violent offenders to support that narrative [4] [5] [6].
2. What independent data and analysis show: a very different picture
Multiple independent and nonpartisan analyses of ICE arrest and detention records show the profile shifting toward people without criminal convictions: leaked and FOIA‑derived datasets and trackers found that by mid‑2025–early‑2026 between roughly two‑thirds and three‑quarters of people in ICE custody or arrested by ICE lacked a U.S. criminal conviction, with some point estimates of 67% and TRAC reporting 74.2% of those held in ICE detention had no criminal conviction as of January 2026 [1] [3] [7].
3. Timing, definitions and categories matter — why the numbers diverge
Part of the disagreement is definitional: ICE’s public messaging counts people with pending charges, immigration offenses, or foreign criminal histories in its “criminal” totals, while reporters and researchers separate categories (convictions, pending charges, no U.S. convictions) and show that many convictions are for minor offenses (traffic or non‑violent charges) or are pending and later dismissed [8] [9] [1]. Fact‑checking outlets found the department’s 70% claim inconsistent with its own data snapshots that showed the share with convictions fell substantially between late 2024 and early 2026 [10] [2].
4. Broader context: enforcement tactics, capacity and consequences
The shift in ICE’s caseload reflects policy and operational changes — massive growth in detention beds, a dramatic rise in “at‑large” interior arrests and use of local jails as sources of targets — which increased the number of non‑convicted immigration violators brought into custody [11] [7] [12]. Advocacy groups and research organizations warn these tactics capture many people who have no U.S. criminal convictions and that detention numbers surged to historic highs in 2025–early‑2026 [11] [7].
5. Reading competing agendas: political messaging vs. auditing reality
The DHS/ICE messaging that most detainees are dangerous criminals serves a clear political objective — justify expanded enforcement and funding — and is supported by selective case highlights [4] [5]. Independent researchers, FOIA trackers and fact‑checkers have pushed back with aggregate data showing the opposite majority reality in many datasets [1] [2] [10]. Reporting limitations remain: publicly released datasets vary in scope and time periods, and some DHS datasets aggregate pending charges and immigration offenses in ways that inflate the share categorized as “criminal” [8] [1].
Conclusion
Assessing the evidence across independent trackers, academic and policy analyses, and fact‑checks leads to a clear bottom line: the claim that ICE is arresting a majority of criminal illegal immigrants is not supported by the available independent data for 2025–early‑2026; instead, those sources show a substantial — often majority — portion of ICE arrests and detainees lacked U.S. criminal convictions, although precise percentages vary with the dataset and definitions used [1] [3] [2]. The discrepancy reflects definitional choices, selective public messaging by DHS/ICE, and rapid policy‑driven changes in enforcement practice that expanded interior arrests of non‑convicted immigration violators [4] [7] [12].