Are trump’s polling numbers dropping
Executive summary
Recent national polls show President Trump’s approval has slipped in late November 2025: Emerson reports approval falling from 45% in October to 41% in November (a four‑point drop) and Reuters/Ipsos found approval at 38%, a post‑return low cited by Reuters [1] [2]. Other trackers and polls show variation—Decision Desk HQ’s average sits near 42% while some trackers and the I&I/TIPP poll report small recoveries into the low‑40s—meaning polls show a downward trend overall but with important cross‑poll differences [3] [4] [5].
1. What the recent polls say — a mixed but downward tilt
Multiple independent national surveys in late November and early December show Trump under 45% approval and disapproval substantially higher in many results: Emerson puts approval at 41% (49% disapprove), Reuters/Ipsos recorded 38% approval (their lowest since his return), and Decision Desk HQ’s average is reported around 42% approval with 55% disapproval [1] [2] [3]. These figures constitute a decline from some readings earlier this year and from some initial second‑term measures [1] [2].
2. Differences between polls — methods, timing and “house effects” matter
Poll numbers vary because pollsters use different methods, samples and weighting. Nate Silver’s tracker highlights disagreement across surveys and “house effects,” noting some polls (e.g., TIPP, InsiderAdvantage) can show better numbers for the president and can move averages [5]. Emerson’s month‑to‑month drop compares polls taken at different dates, and Reuters/Ipsos attributes part of their lower reading to concerns about the economy and specific controversies that peaked during their fieldwork [1] [2].
3. What’s driving the declines in several polls — economy and scandals
Polling organizations and reporters point to rising pocketbook concerns and specific news events as the proximate causes. Reuters tied the approval low to public dissatisfaction over high prices and fallout from the Jeffrey Epstein files; The Hill and other outlets link slippage to economic frustration as voters approach the one‑year mark of the administration [2] [3]. Emerson likewise highlights increased Democratic motivation to vote, which can reflect and reinforce negative perceptions [1].
4. Where Trump remains strong — Republican base and certain states
Despite national declines, polling shows persistent, often strong support among Republican voters: Reuters/Ipsos reported 82% approval among Republicans even as that figure eased from 87% earlier in the month [2]. State‑level trackers and maps show the president still posts positive net ratings in many reliably Republican states, though nationwide net approval is negative in some averages [2] [6].
5. Counterevidence and short‑term rebounds
Not all surveys show a straight fall. I&I/TIPP reported a December bounce with approval climbing back to about 43% and gains across several blocs versus their November reading, and Nate Silver’s bulletin highlights polls that produce slightly better numbers—underlining that short‑term rebounds are possible and that single polls can diverge from averages [4] [5]. Economist/YouGov also recorded record lows in a November tranche, but YouGov’s week‑to‑week results have shown volatility in the past [7] [8].
6. What the averages and trackers indicate about the trajectory
Aggregators and analysts show a negative trajectory in late November: RealClear and other trackers report averages clustering around low‑40s or below, and commentators (including Nate Silver quoted by Newsweek) note Trump’s overall disapproval in late November exceeded comparable points in his past term and that the trajectory was “negative” [9] [6] [5]. Still, aggregates smooth over poll differences and can be pulled by a few outlier surveys.
7. How to interpret polling volatility — practical implications
Polling in this period is best read as a snapshot sensitive to news cycles, pollster methodology and partisan intensity. A multi‑poll decline across reputable surveys is meaningful for political messaging and campaign strategy, but single‑poll swings (both up and down) are common; analysts caution against overinterpreting any one result [5] [7]. The presence of both declines and short rebounds in the sources shows competing interpretations are credible [4] [2].
8. Limitations in the reporting and what’s not covered
Available sources document late‑November declines and some December rebounds, but they do not provide a unified account predicting long‑term movement or causal attribution beyond immediate issues like prices or specific controversies; deeper modeling or post‑shutdown longitudinal analysis is not in these pieces (available sources do not mention long‑term forecasting based on economic models in this dataset) [1] [2] [4].
Bottom line: multiple respected polls in late November 2025 show Trump’s approval down from earlier readings and clustered in the high‑30s to low‑40s, with consistent Republican base strength but growing overall disapproval; poll variation and occasional short rebounds mean the downward signal is real but not yet irreversible [1] [2] [4] [3].