Are we reducing the illegal immigrant population

1. Recent headline numbers show growth, not steady decline

Multiple leading demographers and research organizations report an increase in the U.S. unauthorized population in 2022 — Pew finds 11.0 million (based on the 2022 ACS) and MPI/CMS/other analysts put similar estimates in the 11.0–11.4 million range — reversing a long decline that held from about 2007 to 2019 ^{[1] [2] [4] [3]}. Robert Warren and CMS quantify a jump of roughly 650,000 in 2022, and other CPS‑based estimates put the 2022 undocumented total above 11 million as well ^{[7] [8]}.

2. But the composition matters: Mexican declines offset by other arrivals

The simple total masks divergent trends: undocumented Mexicans have been falling for more than a decade and were substantially lower in 2022 than their 2007 peak, while arrivals and population gains from Central and South America, the Caribbean, Africa and Asia have grown, producing net increases even as Mexico’s share shrank ^{[9] [2] [10]}. Analysts stress that the decline in one origin group can be offset by rapid growth from others, so whether "we" are reducing the population depends on which flows and cohorts are considered ^{[2] [7]}.

3. Border encounters surged after 2021 but do not translate immediately or cleanly into permanent population change

High levels of border encounters and temporary paroles since mid‑2022 contributed to inflows, yet analysts caution that arrivals are only one component — departures, removals, voluntary emigration, legal status adjustments and mortality also change the stock, and those exits are harder to measure ^{[2] [3]}. Brookings and other modelers show wide uncertainty about future net migration (Brookings projects net migration for 2026 could range from large declines to modest gains), underscoring that short‑term encounters don’t guarantee long‑term population shifts ^[5].

4. Enforcement, detention and policy shifts can cut the population but effects are uncertain and lagged

Legislative and administrative enforcement can lower the undocumented population through removals, detention and deterrence; the Congressional Budget Office estimated new enforcement measures could increase detained populations and produce tens of thousands of removals or voluntary departures, altering net immigration projections ^[6]. Yet empirical evidence shows such policies often produce delayed, partial, or geographically uneven effects, and other countries’ migration pressures and humanitarian crises can counterbalance enforcement gains ^{[6] [2]}.

5. Measurement problems and competing estimates mean no definitive, real‑time verdict

Demographers use different data sources and methods — ACS residuals, CPS imputations, SIPP/CMS imputations — producing 2022–2023 estimates clustered around 11–11.4 million but with substantive methodological uncertainty and margins of error; analysts warn short‑term year‑to‑year swings can reflect sampling and modeling differences as well as true demographic change ^{[1] [8] [4]}. Where sources disagree, the responsible conclusion is that there is no clear, consensus evidence of a sustained national reduction since 2022 — instead, mixed trends and rising totals in some estimates predominate ^{[1] [3] [7]}.

6. Bottom line: current evidence points to stabilization or modest increase, not a sustained nationwide decline

The preponderance of recent, transparent estimates indicates the unauthorized population rebounded in 2022 and remained near or above 11 million into 2023, with diverging origin‑country trends and substantial uncertainty about future net migration depending on policy, regional crises, and enforcement ^{[1] [2] [3] [5]}. Claims that the U.S. is definitively “reducing” the illegal immigrant population are not supported by the bulk of published estimates for 2022–2023; reductions in specific subgroups (notably Mexicans) exist, but are being offset by growth from other regions and by the measurement limits that make real‑time certainty impossible ^{[9] [2] [8]}.