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Fact check: Is the aukus agreement worghless now with the unreliability of the usa under trump
1. Summary of the results
The AUKUS agreement appears to have significant institutional safeguards and bipartisan support, despite concerns about potential Trump presidency impacts. The US Congress has already passed a defense act authorizing submarine transfers [1], and there is strong bipartisan support in both Australian and US political circles [2]. The December 2023 Congressional vote was overwhelmingly bipartisan [1], suggesting institutional commitment beyond individual administrations.
2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints
Several important contextual elements are worth considering:
- Economic Benefits for the US: The agreement includes a $3 billion Australian investment in the US industrial base and could help restore US shipbuilding capabilities [3], making it potentially attractive even under an "America First" approach.
- Public vs. Political Sentiment: While there is significant public concern among Australian citizens about US reliability [2] [2], political and defense officials maintain confidence in the agreement's durability. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has expressed confidence in "broad support across Congress" [2].
- Historical Context: Trump has historically avoided criticizing Australia, and the agreement reflects enduring US-Australian strategic interests that transcend individual administrations [1].
3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement
The original statement contains several problematic assumptions:
- It oversimplifies the agreement's durability by focusing solely on presidential politics, ignoring the significant institutional and bipartisan support already in place [1].
- It overlooks the economic and strategic benefits that make the agreement attractive to any US administration, including a potential Trump presidency [3].
- While some experts like Malcolm Turnbull have called it a "terrible deal" [2], fears about AUKUS being derailed are described as "misplaced" by other analysts [1], suggesting the reality is more complex than the statement implies.