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What was the average annual deportation rate under Trump's first term?
Executive Summary
The best-supported numeric answer is that the average annual number of removals (deportations) during President Trump’s first term (fiscal years 2017–2020) was approximately 234,087 removals per year, calculated from ICE removal tallies of 226,119 [1], 256,085 [2], 267,258 [3] and 185,884 [4]. This mean is a simple arithmetic average of the four fiscal-year totals and reflects documented ICE removal counts, but it does not adjust for the exceptional drop in 2020 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic or for differences between DHS-wide removals and ICE interior removals, so the figure should be read as a straight average of reported removals for those fiscal years [5] [6] [7].
1. Numbers that drive the claim — simple arithmetic gives a clear headline
Summing the annual ICE removal totals for FY2017 through FY2020 yields 935,346 removals; dividing by four years produces the ~234,087 average cited above. The underlying year-by-year values used in that calculation — 226,119 in FY2017, 256,085 in FY2018, 267,258 in FY2019, and 185,884 in FY2020 — come from ICE reporting and compilations of deportation statistics [5] [6] [7]. Those totals measure “removals” as DHS/ICE classify them; they are not identical to every academic or media definition of “deportations,” and DHS reporting separates interior ICE removals from CBP border removals, so the arithmetic mean is accurate for the reported FY removal counts but must be contextualized before policy conclusions are drawn [8].
2. Why 2020 pulls the average down — a pandemic year with policy and operational effects
FY2020’s 185,884 removals represent a marked decline from FY2019 and are explicitly linked in DHS/ICE reporting to the operational disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic — lower CBP border encounters, curtailed travel, and reduced enforcement activity — which makes the four-year mean sensitive to a non-policy external shock [7]. Analysts note that counting FY2020 alongside 2017–2019 without adjusting for pandemic effects can understate the intensity of enforcement in the pre-pandemic Trump years; conversely, using only 2017–2019 would raise the average to a higher figure. Any single “average annual deportation rate” must therefore be qualified: it’s a descriptive average of reported removals, not a policy-adjusted rate [7] [8].
3. Interior removals versus DHS-wide removals — the numbers can tell different stories
ICE’s role and DHS-wide totals diverge. ICE-conducted interior removals fell in the latter part of the 2010s, and some analyses show ICE removals averaged lower than total DHS removals because Customs and Border Protection (CBP) border removals historically made up a substantial share of DHS totals. One explainer summarized that DHS averaged hundreds of thousands of removals in 2020–24, with ICE specifically averaging lower annual removals; conversely, FY2017–20 interior removals averaged lower than prior years, reflecting a shift from CBP-driven totals to more interior-focused enforcement metrics [8]. Therefore, quoting an “average annual deportation rate” without specifying DHS vs. ICE interior removals invites confusion [8].
4. Policy claims versus operational reality — goals, lawsuits, and limited fast-track use
Public claims from the Trump administration about aiming to remove “1 million people per year” were never matched by removals; the administration instead pursued policy changes like expanded expedited removal and third-country removal plans, many of which were constrained by courts and operational limits. Published reviews show expedited removal expansions yielded very few removals in the first term and that lawsuits and practical constraints limited the rapid scale-up of some policies [9] [10]. This divergence between stated targets and realized removals underscores that annual removal counts are outcomes shaped by legal, logistical, and external factors, not solely by administrative intent [9].
5. What the different sources emphasize and what they omit — reading motivations
ICE operational reports and statistical compilations present raw removal counts and contextual notes on causes like pandemic effects, while advocacy and policy research pieces emphasize legal constraints, human-rights implications, and detention capacity expansion [6] [11]. Sources focusing on enforcement trends highlight declining interior removals over the 15-year span and the growth of detention systems; policy critiques underscore risks from expedited removal and third-country frameworks. Readers should note these distinct emphases: government reports prioritize operational totals and caveats, while research and advocacy sources stress legal and humanitarian dimensions that raw averages alone do not capture [6] [11] [9].
Conclusion: The direct, defensible numeric answer to “What was the average annual deportation rate under Trump’s first term?” is approximately 234,087 removals per year, based on FY2017–FY2020 ICE removal totals; policymakers and analysts must however interpret that figure with the important caveats above regarding DHS vs. ICE definitions, the pandemic’s 2020 effect, and the gap between stated deportation goals and operational reality [5] [6] [7] [8] [9].