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What was the average annual number of immigrants entering the US during Trump's first term compared to previous administrations?
Executive Summary
The core evidence indicates that legal immigration flows during President Trump’s first term declined compared with the prior Obama term, but the largest driver of the drop was the COVID‑19 pandemic rather than policy alone. Analyses show substantial year‑to‑year falls in green cards and non‑immigrant visas issued in FY2020 and cumulative reductions over the four‑year span, while enforcement removals and encounters tell a different story about enforcement intensity and unauthorized migration [1] [2] [3]. Below I extract the key claims, present the available quantitative comparisons, explain the pandemic’s outsized role, place enforcement and removals in context, and flag data gaps and interpretive limits you should know when comparing administrations [1] [4] [2] [3] [5].
1. What people asserted — three clear claims that drive the debate
Multiple claims underlie the question: first, that the average annual number of legal immigrants entering the U.S. fell during Trump’s first term relative to Obama’s second term; second, that COVID‑19, not only policy, produced much of the decline; and third, that removals/deportations and unauthorized‑entry encounters did not uniformly rise under Trump. The Cato analysis quantifies a cumulative reduction in green cards and non‑immigrant visas and frames much of the decline as pandemic‑related [1]. Migration Policy Center analysis similarly emphasizes limited changes outside refugee admissions and attributes a large FY2020 visa fall to COVID impacts [2]. Reporting on removals and encounters adds a different dimension, showing that removals were not necessarily higher than prior administrations and that border encounter volumes differ by administration and period [3] [5].
2. Legal admissions: what the numbers in analyses actually show
Analysts report substantial absolute declines in visa issuance and green cards when comparing Trump’s four years to Obama’s second term, with Cato citing rough cumulative drops of about 418,453 green cards and more than 11 million non‑immigrant visas over the period [1]. Migration Policy Center finds that permanent and temporary admission streams stayed relatively stable until FY2020, when immigrant visas issued abroad fell about 45 percent—an outcome tied to travel restrictions and consular closures [2]. These sources together indicate the average annual legal inflow was lower in FY2020 and thus drags down the four‑year average for Trump’s first term, but the decline is concentrated in the pandemic year rather than representing a steady multi‑year collapse solely attributable to policy [1] [2].
3. The pandemic effect: why 2020 dominates the comparison
The COVID‑19 pandemic sharply reduced visa processing, consular services, refugee admissions, and travel—making FY2020 an outlier that disproportionately reduced average annual admissions for any administration covering that year. Cato notes that before the pandemic, monthly green‑card and non‑immigrant‑visa issuance under Trump was down only modestly (about 0.5 percent and 12 percent, respectively), and the much larger cumulative shortfall resulted from pandemic shutdowns [1]. Migration Policy Center also identifies the FY2020 collapse in visas issued abroad as the primary driver of the observed decline, while refugee admissions and some temporary categories show more pronounced policy sensitivity [2]. The pattern shows policy and pandemic effects interacting, with pandemic constraints producing the largest single‑year fall.
4. Enforcement and removals: a different metric, different story
Counting removals and border encounters produces a distinct picture from admissions. Department of Homeland Security reporting and later analyses show that removals under Trump’s first term were not at levels higher than those under prior presidential terms in cumulative comparisons, with some sources indicating roughly 1.2–1.5 million removals in that period but fewer than some earlier two‑term totals when adjusted for term length [3] [5]. Border encounters rose dramatically under the Biden administration compared with the Trump years, underscoring that unauthorized flow volumes and enforcement outputs must be treated separately from legal admissions; different administrations used different policies and priorities that affect removals versus entries [4] [5].
5. Limits, gaps, and how to interpret “average annual” comparisons
Comparing average annual entry counts across administrations requires careful attention to term length, which fiscal‑year timing is used, and whether counts include temporary visas, green cards, refugees, and overseas‑issued immigrant visas. The sources warn that FY2020’s data distort four‑year averages and that public perception may conflate legal admissions with unauthorized flows and enforcement intensity [2]. Data availability and definitional differences—such as counting consular‑issued visas versus admissions at ports of entry—produce variation in headline numbers. Where analysts provide cumulative drops, they often caveat that the pandemic was the primary proximate cause of the sharpest declines in 2020, not solely executive policy [1] [2].
6. Bottom line: measured conclusion and what remains unresolved
Evidence supports the statement that average annual legal immigration was lower during Trump’s first term than Obama’s second term, largely because FY2020 was anomalously low due to COVID‑19, while enforcement and removal metrics do not uniformly show higher activity under Trump and sometimes show lower removal totals than some prior administrations. The picture is multi‑dimensional: policy actions mattered for refugees and certain visas, the pandemic produced the biggest numerical impact, and enforcement statistics follow different dynamics—so any single‑number comparison without those caveats is incomplete [1] [2] [3] [5].