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What was the average annual number of undocumented immigrants entering the US during Trump's term?
Executive summary
Available sources do not give a single definitive "average annual number of undocumented immigrants entering the U.S. during Trump's term," but they provide data points and estimates on encounters, "gotaways," and population change that help frame the question. Official and analytical reports show far more encounters and apprehensions during 2017–2020 than earlier periods (millions of encounters), while population estimates for the unauthorized resident stock in mid-2021 cluster around 10.5–11.2 million [1] [2].
1. What people mean by “entering” — different measures, different answers
When journalists or officials discuss how many undocumented people “entered,” they use at least three different metrics: CBP encounters (apprehensions, inadmissibles, expulsions), DHS/CBP “gotaways” (estimated successful unlawful entries), and net growth in the unauthorized resident population; each produces different magnitudes and cannot be equated without careful adjustment [3] [4] [1].
2. Encounters during the Trump years: a large flow on CBP’s books
CBP encounter counts at the Southwest land border include apprehensions between ports and inadmissibles/expulsions at ports of entry; across FY2017–FY2020 these encounter totals were in the low millions and are the primary data people cite when discussing arrivals [3] [5]. The House Homeland Security factsheet highlights that encounters since FY2021 exceeded 10.8 million, contrasting with roughly 3 million encounters in FY2017–2020 — underscoring how encounter volumes vary by period and policy context [5].
3. “Gotaways” and the uncertainty about how many slipped through
DHS and reporting often estimate “gotaways” — people who evaded apprehension. DHS estimated about 660,000 gotaways in FY2021, but that figure is specific to that fiscal year and the agency has not consistently published comparable annual gotaway estimates for every year of the Trump term; analysts therefore treat gotaway counts as model-based and variable [6] [4]. FactCheck.org notes DHS estimated 660,000 gotaways in 2021 but the agency would not provide updated estimates for subsequent years [4].
4. Unauthorized population (stock) grew slowly during and after Trump — not a direct measure of annual entry
Population estimates—such as Migration Policy Institute’s ~11.2 million in mid-2021—measure the stock of unauthorized residents and incorporate entries, exits, adjustments, and mortality; they do not equal the annual inflow [1]. Pew and other analysts report 10.5 million for 2021 in one series and other revised series show different totals; such changes reflect methodology and post‑2020 data revisions [2] [7].
5. Simple averaging pitfalls — why an “average annual entries under Trump” can mislead
Attempting to average entries across the Trump term (2017–2020) from encounter counts double‑counts repeat apprehensions, ignores gotaways uncertainty, and fails to account for visa overstays (a substantial but separate category not well captured by border data) [3] [8]. Encounters do not equal unique entrants; DHS has said apprehension rates and interdiction effectiveness change over time, altering the relationship between encounters and successful entries [6] [9].
6. What the available sources allow you to conclude
Available sources do not provide a single, authoritative “average annual number of undocumented immigrants entering the U.S. during Trump’s term.” They do, however, show that (a) encounter volumes during 2017–2020 were measured in the low millions over the four-year span [5], (b) gotaway estimates exist for some years but are incomplete and modeled [4], and (c) the unauthorized resident population in mid‑2021 was estimated around 10.5–11.2 million depending on methodology [1] [2].
7. How to get the closest practical estimate and next steps for research
To approximate annual inflow during 2017–2020, analysts typically combine annual CBP apprehensions and modeled gotaways (with caution), then subtract repeat apprehensions and account for visa overstays using DHS or academic overstays estimates; this requires access to year-by-year DHS/CBP and DHS Office of Immigration Statistics reports and transparent modeling assumptions [3] [8]. If you want, I can assemble a year-by-year table from CBP encounter and DHS reports included in these sources and show a range (low–high) for “likely successful unlawful entries” for 2017–2020 based on plausible apprehension rates.
Limitations and competing views: DHS/CBP encounter data are public but subject to definitional complexity [3]; advocacy and committee reports emphasize either enforcement success or policy failures [5], while research groups focus on stock estimates and methodology differences [1] [2]. Available sources do not mention a single definitive annual average for Trump’s term.