Fact check: What is the likelihood of a former US President like Barack Obama being arrested?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the analyses provided, the likelihood of former President Barack Obama being arrested is extremely low. Multiple sources converge on this conclusion for several key reasons:

• Legal immunity protections: The Supreme Court's recent ruling provides significant presidential immunity, potentially protecting former presidents from criminal prosecution for official acts taken during their presidency ^[1]. Even Donald Trump himself acknowledged that this immunity ruling "probably helps [Obama] a lot" ^[2].
• Lack of credible evidence: Despite allegations from figures like Tulsi Gabbard and Donald Trump, experts consistently state that declassified documents do not implicate Obama in any apparent wrongdoing ^[3]. The accusations are viewed by analysts as lacking merit ^[3].
• Distraction tactics: Multiple sources suggest these allegations serve as diversionary tactics, particularly to shift attention away from other scandals like the Jeffrey Epstein case ^{[4] [5]}. Former Obama aides have dismissed the allegations as baseless attempts to redirect focus ^[5].
• Fabricated evidence: At least one source mentions a deepfake video showing Obama's arrest that was shared but did not represent actual events, further undermining the credibility of arrest claims ^[4].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks several important contextual elements:

• Supreme Court immunity precedent: The analyses reveal that the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity creates substantial legal barriers to prosecuting former presidents for official acts, which wasn't addressed in the original question ^{[1] [6]}.
• Political motivations: The ACLU strongly criticized the Supreme Court ruling, arguing it places presidents "substantially above the law" ^[6], suggesting there are legitimate concerns about presidential accountability that benefit from this immunity structure.
• Specific allegations context: The question doesn't reference the particular accusations being made, which center around alleged conspiracy to subvert Trump's 2016 victory ^[7], though these lack substantive evidence.
• Historical precedent: The analyses don't provide context about whether any former U.S. president has ever been arrested, which would be relevant baseline information.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

While the original question appears neutral, the surrounding context reveals significant misinformation elements:

• Amplification of unsubstantiated claims: The very premise that Obama's arrest is a realistic possibility appears to stem from allegations that experts consider baseless ^{[3] [5]}.
• Deepfake manipulation: The circulation of fabricated arrest videos demonstrates active disinformation campaigns targeting Obama ^[4].
• Political weaponization: The analyses suggest that figures like Trump and Tulsi Gabbard benefit from promoting these narratives as they serve to distract from other controversies and maintain political relevance ^{[4] [8] [5]}.
• Lack of DOJ investigation: No current Department of Justice investigation into Obama has been announced, making arrest speculation premature at best ^[2].

The question, while seemingly objective, operates within a framework of politically motivated allegations that lack evidentiary support and appear designed to serve specific political interests rather than pursue legitimate legal accountability.