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Fact check: How many people crossed the southern border illegally during the biden adminstration
Executive Summary
The available counts of people who crossed the U.S. southern border without authorization during the Biden administration vary widely across reporting methods, with contemporaneous tallies ranging from roughly 7.8 million known crossings plus 1.5 million "gotaways" in one account to an aggregate estimate near 14 million through September 2025 when including encounters and estimated attempts [1] [2]. Official agency tallies also show volatility: fiscal 2024 recorded nearly 3 million illegal entry attempts while later 2025 preliminary data indicated a sharp decline in Border Patrol apprehensions [2] [3]. This analysis compares those claims, explains how counts are constructed, and highlights competing interpretations and potential agendas.
1. Startling Totals, But Not One Number Everyone Agrees On
Reports cite multiple, incompatible totals for the Biden years because sources count different things: interior apprehensions, U.S. Border Patrol encounters, “gotaways” (known crossings without apprehension), and parole admissions. One analysis aggregates over 7.8 million apprehensions plus at least 1.5 million gotaways while another extrapolates to roughly 14 million total illegal crossers through late 2025 by adding fiscal-year encounters [1] [2]. The discrepancy stems from methodology — whether a “crossing” equals a Border Patrol encounter, a CBP processing event, a successful evasion, or policy-based paroles — and those definitional choices drive headline figures and political claims [4] [5].
2. What the Agencies Reported: Fiscal-Year Peaks and a 2025 Trough
Federal data released in late 2024 and 2025 show fiscal 2024 nearly reached 3 million reported illegal entries or attempted entries, marking a high point in recent history and underpinning higher cumulative totals ascribed to the administration through 2025 [2]. By contrast, DHS and CBP preliminary September 2025 enforcement numbers reported a 55-year low in Border Patrol apprehensions for a fiscal-year period, with Southwest Border apprehensions at 237,565, signaling a sharp decline from prior peaks [3]. Both sets of figures are official snapshots, but they reflect different time windows and operational contexts that reshape interpretations.
3. The “Gotaways” Problem: Why Known Apprehensions Understate Crossings
Advocates and some investigative accounts emphasize “gotaways” — migrants observed but not apprehended — to argue that official apprehension counts understate total crossings. One source estimated at least 1.5 million gotaways in addition to millions of apprehensions, elevating the cumulative estimate [1]. CBP’s published encounter numbers do not fully capture non-apprehensions, irregular migratory routes, and instances where migrants are processed via parole or other authorities, so calculations excluding gotaways can materially undercount actual crossings, depending on the analyst’s aims [4] [2].
4. Different Policies, Different Counting: Parole Programs and Recordkeeping
Policy shifts under the Biden administration — including expanded parole programs and the reversal of certain prior-era restrictions — changed how migrants are processed and therefore how they appear in counts. Parole admissions and humanitarian pathways can produce legal entries that do not show up in illegal crossing tallies, while at other times parole releases into the U.S. are characterized as part of migration totals by critics [4] [5]. The practical result is that policy design affects both migration flows and the data footprint, complicating comparisons across administrations and fueling partisan narratives.
5. Timeline Matters: Why Cumulative Totals Balloon Fast
Because many reporting efforts sum fiscal-year encounters repeatedly across years, cumulative totals for the “Biden era” grow quickly: nearly 3 million in FY2024 plus millions in preceding and subsequent years yields multi-million aggregates such as the roughly 14 million figure attributed through September 2025 [2]. Conversely, shorter-term indicators like the 2025 drop to a 55-year low in apprehensions can be used to argue the situation improved. Both claims are fact-based but selectively emphasize different windows, so readers should note whether a claim references a fiscal year, a cumulative multi-year total, or a recent quarter.
6. Motives and Messaging: How Numbers Are Used Politically
Media reports and advocacy groups selectively highlight metrics that support their positions: security-focused outlets emphasize large cumulative numbers and gotaways to argue for stricter enforcement, while administration defenders point to falling apprehensions in 2025 and policy tools to frame progress [1] [3]. The same underlying datasets are cited in service of contrasting narratives. Recognizing these incentives is essential; different stakeholders emphasize removals, encounters, paroles, or gotaways depending on whether they seek to depict a crisis or improvement [4] [5].
7. Bottom Line: What a Careful Reader Should Conclude
A careful synthesis shows that there is no single uncontested “how many” number for illegal southern border crossings during the Biden administration; authoritative agency counts document millions of encounters, independent analyses add gotaways and parole-related entries, and aggregate estimates through September 2025 range from roughly 9–14 million depending on definitions [1] [2]. The data support two firm conclusions: first, migration volumes were historically high in 2022–2024, and second, preliminary 2025 data show a notable decline in Border Patrol apprehensions, meaning the trend is dynamic and sensitive to policy and enforcement changes [2] [3].