How do border crossings and illegal immigration trends during Biden’s presidency compare to previous administrations?
Executive summary
Border crossings and illegal-immigration encounters surged early in President Biden’s term and reached historically high annual totals, but policy changes and enforcement actions later in his presidency produced sharp declines in encounters; comparing administrations requires separating encounters, expulsions/returns, and removals because each metric moved differently and is reported with partisan spin [1][2]. Conservative and Republican sources emphasize record lows under the subsequent Trump administration and use selective short-term comparisons, while independent analysts and immigrant-rights groups point to the unprecedented scale of encounters and expulsions that occurred during the Biden years [3][4][1].
1. What the raw counts show: more encounters under Biden, then big declines
From 2021 through early 2024 the Biden administration recorded roughly 9.4 million encounters with unauthorized migrants—more than three times the encounters under the prior Trump term when measured on the same rolling basis—though many were repeat attempts by the same individuals and thus not a one-to-one count of unique people [1]. By mid–to–late 2023 and into 2024 CBP reported sustained decreases in unlawful crossings after a suite of executive actions and operational changes, with the agency citing drops of roughly 55–60% in between‑ports encounters from June to December of 2024 and lower monthly totals compared with the December 2023 peak [2][5][6].
2. Enforcement and returns: Biden removed and expelled at historic scale
Counting deportations, expulsions under public‑health authorities, and other returns together, the Biden years produced millions of repatriations—Migration Policy estimates about 4.4 million combined expulsions and deportations through early 2024 and notes 1.1 million formal deportations through February 2024—placing Biden’s total repatriation numbers among the highest of any modern presidency [1]. CBP and DHS also relied on tools such as Title 42 expulsions (largely in effect during the period) and parole programs at ports of entry, which moved large numbers through legal entry channels or rapid processing and therefore changed the composition of where encounters were recorded [4][1][2].
3. The Trump comparison: record lows claimed, but context matters
Trump-era officials and recent DHS/administration releases assert historic lows in southwest border encounters and dramatic percentage drops compared with Biden-era monthly averages, statements that stress deterrence and operational control [7][3][8]. Independent fact‑checking and media analysis caution that such claims often cherry‑pick short time windows, mix encounters at ports and between ports, and do not always distinguish unique individuals from repeat encounters, which can make percentage comparisons misleading [9][10].
4. Data gaps, measurement differences, and political framing
A core difficulty in comparing presidencies is that public metrics differ—CBP reports encounters and apprehensions, ICE reports removals, and congressional or partisan fact sheets package those figures to support policy narratives—so the same raw numbers can be framed as either “crisis” or “record security” depending on the source [4][11]. Important technical elements—“gotaways” detected by sensors but not apprehended, mass‑parole counts through CBP One and CHNV programs, and multiple encounters by the same migrants—mean total encounter counts overstate the number of distinct migrants while understating enforcement workload and system strain [11][1].
5. Bottom line: shifts in scale, tools, and outcomes—not a simple reversal
Comparing Biden’s presidency with previous administrations shows both continuity and change: Biden presided over very large encounter totals and exceptionally high numbers of expulsions/returns, but later policy measures coincided with steep declines in certain encounter categories; Trump-era claims of unprecedented reductions are supported by some short‑term border metrics yet are qualified by fact‑checkers and analysts who point to differing baselines and measurement choices [1][2][9]. Given partisan presentation from DHS, congressional committees, and advocacy groups, the empirical story is complex: trends rose and then fell under Biden, removals and expulsions were historically large, and headline comparisons across administrations require careful parsing of which metric is being cited and by whom [4][3][12].