How do Biden administration deportation numbers compare to Trump and Obama?
Executive summary
Across multiple datasets and reporting windows, Joe Biden presided over higher aggregate departures (driven largely by voluntary “returns” at the border) than Donald Trump’s first term and, depending on the metric and time window, rivaled or exceeded Barack Obama’s totals; however, comparisons are fraught because governments count “removals,” “returns,” and border turn‑backs differently and recent DHS reporting practices have changed the apples-to-apples baseline [1] [2] [3].
1. The headline numbers: Biden ahead of Trump, mixed with Obama
Multiple outlets and research groups report that deportation‑era totals under Biden top those under Trump’s most recent year and in some slices surpass Trump’s entire first term: Migration Policy and several press reports say Biden’s administration produced large volumes of returns and removals, with returns becoming the dominant category for the first time since early Obama years [1], while Newsweek and other compilations cite DHS monthly tallies showing tens of thousands of removals per month in late 2024 under Biden [4] [2]. Independent trackers such as TRAC and Factchequeado show that Obama’s years included very high removal counts as well, so whether Biden “beats” Obama depends on the specific fiscal years and whether one counts returns and voluntary repatriations together with formal removals [5] [6].
2. Returns vs. formal removals: the crucial technicality
A defining difference is that a growing share of Biden‑era departures have been “returns” — migrants acknowledging unlawful entry and voluntarily departing without a formal removal order — a pattern Migration Policy highlights as casting Biden more as a “returner‑in‑chief” than a classic remover [1]. Historical practice shows returns dominated earlier eras too (notably during Bush), so raw totals that mix returns and removals produce a different narrative than statistics limited to formal “removals” [1] [2].
3. Trump’s loud claims vs. independent tallies
The Trump administration publicized large numbers early in its second term, but independent analyses paint a more mixed picture: PolitiFact and TRAC reporting find that overall deportations under Trump have been lower than under Biden and Obama in many comparable windows, and TRAC’s analysis concludes there is “little empirical evidence” that removals are higher under Trump when using consistent data series [7] [6]. The New York Times’ data work showing substantial interior and border removals under Trump in the most recent 12 months complicates the story further, but it also notes reporting gaps because DHS has curtailed some of its routine detailed publications [8].
4. Data integrity, changing definitions and the politics of framing
Analysts warn that DHS and administrations can shift which events are counted (returns, repatriations, turn‑backs) and how they are publicized, producing politically useful narratives; critics say DHS headline counts can be “meaningless” without methodological transparency, and some independent researchers suspect the department has changed its math to inflate comparisons [3]. Advocacy groups and watchdogs emphasize that counting choices — for example whether to include voluntary departures or only formal removals — materially alter rankings among presidents [3] [5].
5. What the different sources are trying to do — and why it matters
Government releases and pro‑enforcement messaging often spotlight totals to show toughness; media outlets and independent trackers aim to contextualize those numbers and expose methodological shifts [4] [8] [6]. Migration Policy’s framing emphasizes diplomacy and operational shifts (returns and wider repatriation networks) while watchdogs like TRAC and fact‑checkers interrogate comparability across administrations; each actor brings implicit agendas — administrations want credit for enforcement, advocates want to emphasize humanitarian impacts, and researchers want methodological rigor [1] [6] [7].
6. Bottom line for readers trying to compare presidents
If the metric is total departures including voluntary returns, Biden’s era often outpaces Trump’s reported numbers and competes with Obama’s high‑volume years; if the metric is strictly formal removals or arrests from the interior, the picture is more contested and depends on which fiscal years and which DHS series are used — and researchers caution that recent DHS reporting practices make straightforward longitudinal comparisons unreliable without careful normalization [1] [2] [3] [6].