What was the economy like when Biden left

1. A mixed growth picture: modest slowing, not collapse

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate showed real GDP edged down at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2025 after stronger growth in late 2024, signaling a cooling of momentum as the transition occurred ^[1]. The Congressional Budget Office also projected growth would “cool” in 2025 and 2026 and then settle to roughly 1.8% annually later in the decade, reinforcing the narrative of a slower expansion, not a recessionary freefall ^[2]. Private forecasters had a range — some projecting near‑trend 2% growth in 2025 — reflecting uncertainty about near‑term policy and external shocks ^{[6] [7]}.

2. Labor market and employment: still strong but showing strain

Multiple overviews in early 2025 emphasized that job creation since the pandemic had been large (for example, 2.3 million jobs in the 12 months ending November 2024 was cited in regional summaries) and unemployment remained low, but some indicators pointed to cooling hiring and restrained job growth early in 2025 owing to weather and other temporary factors ^{[8] [9]}. The Treasury’s outlook and other federal analyses noted slower headline job growth and slightly higher unemployment trends into 2025, which underpinned the CBO’s view that the Fed would lower rates as inflation eased ^{[10] [2]}.

3. Inflation and monetary policy: easing but still central to forecasts

Government analysis and forecasters recorded a clear downshift in inflation from its post‑pandemic peaks; core inflation in early 2025 was materially lower than earlier years and fed into expectations for interest‑rate cuts in 2025–26 ^{[10] [2]}. That disinflation story was used by Treasury and others to argue the economy had achieved something close to a soft landing after pandemic pressures ^[3]. Still, higher prices in specific categories (food, energy, shelter) and upside risks from policy‑driven tariffs were repeatedly flagged as potential inflation drivers ^{[10] [11]}.

4. Fiscal picture and long‑run concerns: high deficits and debt

Analysts highlighted a high deficit around 6% of GDP and a public debt level near 100% of GDP as a consequential backdrop for the transition — notable because those fiscal conditions exist while the labor market was relatively tight, constraining policy space going forward ^[4]. The CBO’s longer‑run outlook and Treasury commentary underscored that budgetary pressures would shape growth prospects through the decade ^{[2] [5]}.

5. Policy shifts and uncertainty: tariffs, immigration, and shutdown risks

A recurring theme in the sources is policy uncertainty. CBO and other analysts explicitly modelled the economic effects of higher tariffs, tighter immigration (lower net migration), and changes in fiscal measures; these shifts were expected to lower labor force growth, raise some domestic production, and alter growth timing across 2025–28 ^{[5] [11]}. The Conference Board noted that federal shutdowns and interruptions to government services could shave GDP in affected quarters, adding near‑term risk to the baseline ^[12].

6. Competing narratives: “soft landing” vs. reasons for caution

The Treasury framed the post‑pandemic recovery under the Biden administration as “historic” and asserted strong growth and employment gains, emphasizing the soft‑landing narrative ^[3]. Independent forecasters and the CBO accepted the recovery but warned that growth would cool and highlighted structural headwinds (slower immigration, high deficits) and policy uncertainty that could dim medium‑term prospects ^{[2] [5]}. Financial commentators also argued growth was stronger than many expected into late 2025, showing the split between upbeat market‑based reads and more cautious official projections ^[13].

7. What the sources don’t say

Available sources do not mention specific household‑level outcomes (e.g., median wage changes for 2024–25) in detail, nor do they provide a comprehensive, single‑number “state of the economy” at the precise moment of transfer beyond the GDP, inflation, unemployment, and deficit metrics already cited (not found in current reporting). They also do not present a unanimous judgment — instead they provide competing forecasts and risk scenarios ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

Bottom line: when Biden left office, official and private reporting described an economy that had recovered strongly from the pandemic but was entering a period of slower growth, easing inflation, persistent fiscal deficits, and elevated policy uncertainty — a mixed record that left ample room for divergent interpretations depending on which indicators and risks a reader emphasizes ^{[1] [2] [3]}.