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Fact check: How do border crossing numbers compare to the same period in 2023?
Executive Summary
The evidence shows a sharp decline in U.S. southwest border encounters in 2025 compared with 2023, with multiple official and media accounts reporting dramatically lower apprehension counts and monthly encounters. Government summaries and contemporaneous news reporting converge on a narrative of substantially fewer crossings in 2025 versus the high volumes recorded in 2023 and earlier, though the sources differ in scope and metrics used [1] [2] [3]. This analysis compares the available datasets, highlights methodological differences, and flags where reporting may reflect political framing rather than purely statistical divergence [4] [5].
1. Why the headline numbers look dramatically different — unpacking the metrics that matter
Different datasets track distinct events: CBP separates Title 8 apprehensions, Title 8 inadmissibles, and Title 42 expulsions, while broader counts reported by media aggregate or emphasize particular categories. The CBP monthly update that reports an 8,725 encounters figure for May 2025 and a 93% drop from May 2024 reflects operational monthly encounters on the southwest border and excludes other measures that can inflate totals if combined differently [1] [4]. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics compiles port-of-entry crossings for pedestrians and vehicles across years, which is useful for long-term trends but not a like-for-like comparison with CBP encounter counts [5]. Comparisons therefore depend on which categories and timeframes are selected, making simple year-over-year claims potentially misleading if metrics are not clearly defined.
2. What the 2025 totals say when stacked against 2023: steep declines reported
Multiple 2025 reports converge on a substantial fall in apprehensions compared with earlier years: one June 2025 report cites roughly 238,000 migrant apprehensions in 2025, much lower than the roughly 1.5 million reported for the prior year in that account, while October 2025 media coverage also highlights annual totals at multi-decade lows versus 2022–2023 peaks [2] [3]. The CBP monthly snapshot for May 2025 showing a 93% decline from May 2024 indicates that the downward trajectory persisted through mid-2025 at least for monthly encounters [1]. Taken together, these figures point to a pronounced reduction in crossings in 2025 relative to the high volumes of 2023, across several independent reporting streams.
3. Where methodological differences create apparent contradictions
Some public discussions compare fiscal-year aggregates, others focus on monthly counts, and still others aggregate distinct encounter types; these choices drive what appears as agreement or contradiction. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics provides year-over-year port-of-entry volumes for 2019–2024, which is not a direct comparison to CBP encounter categories and thus may not align with media-reported apprehension changes between 2023 and 2025 [5]. CBP’s own documentation emphasizes how encounters are classified, and without reconciling those classifications across sources, apples-to-apples comparisons are impossible [4]. Readers should therefore treat headline declines as directionally accurate but conditional on the metric used.
4. How media framing and timing shape public perception
Coverage in October 2025 by national outlets described 2025 apprehensions as the lowest annual level since 1970, a striking historical frame that magnifies perception of change and supports the narrative of a dramatic turnaround [3] [6]. Local reporting from border towns echoes that sense of relief and attributes quieter conditions to policy changes, a perspective that mixes observed lower flows with anecdotal community experience [6]. Such framing often reflects political or editorial angles, with outlets emphasizing historical superlatives or local perceptions; the underlying statistics remain the definitive measure but are presented within editorial narratives that can amplify particular conclusions [3] [6].
5. What is missing from the available accounts and why that matters
The sources supplied do not fully reconcile demographic breakdowns, enforcement actions by category, or cross-border mobility unrelated to irregular migration, leaving gaps in understanding who comprises the decline and whether underlying drivers are policy, enforcement, seasonal, or economic. CBP’s classification notes and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ port data point to structural differences in measurement, but neither source in the supplied set provides a unified dataset that tracks the same cohort across 2023–2025 [4] [5]. Absent unified, disaggregated time-series data, policymakers and analysts risk over-attributing causality to single factors when multiple interacting drivers likely explain the decline.
6. Bottom line: converging signals but nuanced interpretation required
The collective evidence shows a clear directional decline in border encounters and apprehensions in 2025 compared to 2023, with specific monthly and annual figures indicating large percentage drops [1] [2] [3]. However, precise magnitudes and causal explanations vary by source and metric, and reporting often mixes different encounter types and timeframes without harmonization [4] [5]. Analysts should rely on harmonized, disaggregated CBP time-series for exact year-over-year calculations, and treat media historical framing and local anecdotes as context rather than substitute for standardized data [3] [6].