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Fact check: Which sectors have seen the largest increase in border crossings since 2023?
Executive Summary
Border crossing trends since 2023 show divergent patterns by geography and migrant category, with substantial increases in some sectors and declines in others. Data indicate large spikes at the U.S.-Canada and specific U.S. Border Patrol sectors for family units and unaccompanied children, while aggregate encounters at the U.S.-Mexico southwest border fell in 2024 relative to 2023; the picture depends on which border, which sector, and which migrant category is examined [1] [2] [3]. Below is a multi-source synthesis highlighting the key claims, contradictions, and contextual caveats.
1. The Northern Surge: Canada crossings climbed dramatically and why that matters
Reports show a pronounced rise in encounters at the U.S.-Canada border, with a 73 percent increase from 2022 to 2023 and an even larger multi-year jump, cited as 597 percent from 2021 to 2023; single adults made up the dominant demographic and authorities flagged encounters involving individuals on watchlists [1]. This northern increase underscores migration route shifts and seasonal enforcement differences, and it signals pressures on Canadian reception systems and U.S. northern ports of entry. The data suggest policy, weather, and enforcement at southern borders influenced these flows, pushing some migrants to alternate routes into Canada and the northern U.S. [1].
2. Southwest border aggregate trend: Encounters fall in 2024 but context changes the story
A 2024 study and administration reporting document a 14 percent decrease in migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2024 compared with 2023, with total custody encounters around 2.1–2.135 million and a significant fall in Border Patrol apprehensions—described as the smallest annual figure since 2021 [2] [4]. That decline occurred alongside expanded lawful pathways like the CBP One app and CHNV programs; shifts in policy and enforcement likely changed encounter patterns rather than eliminating cross-border movements outright [4]. Aggregate declines can obscure increases in specific sectors and demographic groups, so sectoral breakdowns are essential.
3. Sector-level spikes: Rio Grande and family/child categories saw sharp increases
More granular sector data show striking increases in specific patrol sectors and migrant categories, notably the Rio Grande sector reporting a 230 percent rise in Unaccompanied Alien Children encounters and a 489 percent increase in Family Unit encounters compared with 2023 baselines [3]. These sector-specific surges indicate that while national totals can fall, localized pressure points can intensify, producing humanitarian and operational strains in certain communities and facilities. The contrast between sector spikes and national declines highlights the importance of disaggregated data for policymaking and resource allocation [3].
4. Urban impacts and inland service burdens: Cities stretched after 2023 surges
Media and agency updates record large monthly surges in late 2023 that strained city services, including December 2023 accounts of over 225,000 migrants encountered that month and nearly 249,785 southwest border encounters recorded by Border Patrol between ports of entry [5] [6]. Cities such as Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver, and Washington, DC, were reported to struggle with arrivals and shelter capacity, reflecting how border dynamics translate into inland service demands. These urban stress points followed peak months in 2023 and preceded the national-level declines reported in 2024, indicating volatile, short-term spikes [5] [6].
5. Population-level context: Unauthorized resident totals hit new highs in 2023
Independent analysis found the number of immigrants lacking permanent legal status in the U.S. reached an all-time high—14 million people—in 2023, with the largest increases concentrated in California, Texas, Florida, and New York, suggesting sustained migration and settlement trends even amid fluctuating border encounter counts [7]. This broader demographic figure captures long-term flows, internal settlement, and adjustments that encounter tallies alone do not reflect. The increase in unauthorized residents provides context for why sectoral service burdens and political focus on immigration persisted after 2023 peaks [7].
6. Reconciling contradictions: Why different sources tell different stories
The apparent contradictions—national declines in 2024 versus sectoral and northern increases—stem from differences in metrics, time windows, geography, and migrant categories. Aggregate encounter totals for the southwest border fell in 2024, while northern border encounters and specific southwest sectors (Rio Grande) saw sharp upticks; monthly spikes in late 2023 generated acute pressures despite longer-run declines [2] [1] [3] [5]. Policy shifts toward lawful pathways and enforcement changes also redistributed flows across routes and months, so interpreting “largest increase” requires specifying sector (e.g., Rio Grande), border (northern vs. southwest), and category (family units, unaccompanied children).
7. What’s missing and what to watch next
Available analyses highlight gaps in continuous, publicly accessible sector-by-sector time series and limited standardized breakdowns by migrant category across borders, complicating comparisons and policy design [8]. Moving forward, examine updated BTS and CBP sector-level inventories, monthly CBP updates, and demographic breakdowns to track whether Rio Grande and northern increases persist or were episodic, and whether policy changes continue shifting flows into lawful pathways or alternate routes [3] [8] [4].