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Fact check: What is the current breakdown of the CA Assembly
Executive Summary
The current breakdown of the California State Assembly is disputed across available reports but the preponderance of recent, post-2024 sources indicates Democrats hold either a 60-20 or 62-18 majority, with competing tallies tied to election-night projections and subsequent official certifications [1] [2] [3]. This analysis extracts the competing claims, highlights the most recent published dates, and explains why counting differences exist — clarifying what is settled fact, what remains provisional, and what political context matters for interpreting those numbers [1] [3].
1. Why two different majorities are being reported — Election night projections versus finalized tallies
Conflicting counts — 62-18 versus 60-20 — stem from differences in timing and source type: one report is an election-night projection asserting Democrats would retain a supermajority with 62 seats in the Assembly, while other sources listing the legislature’s formal composition show 60 Democrats and 20 Republicans for the 2025–2026 session [1] [2]. Election-night tallies often include projected winners based on early returns and modeled absentee counts, whereas later, consolidated official records and institutional rosters reflect certified results and special elections, resignations, or appointments that occur between election night and the convening of the legislative session [1] [2].
2. Which sources claim which result — mapping the competing narratives
A media report from November 5, 2024, describes Democrats as expected to keep a supermajority and cites a 62–18 Assembly split in its projection, framing that as the immediate outcome of the 2024 general election [1]. By contrast, reference compilations and legislative rosters prepared for the 2025 session — including a widely used public encyclopedia entry and a Ballotpedia summary dated September 12, 2025 — list the Assembly composition as 60 Democrats and 20 Republicans, and the Senate as 30–10 for Democrats [2] [3]. Those latter tallies appear in documents meant to reflect the formal legislative class rather than provisional election-night math [2] [3].
3. Timing matters — dates and what they tell us about reliability
The November 5, 2024 projection [1] is closest to the election and thus captures immediate outcomes and forecasts, but lacks follow-up to account for post-election changes. The entries dated or describing the 2025–2026 legislative session [2] [3], with Ballotpedia’s September 12, 2025 note, reflect reconciled rosters compiled after certifications, special elections, and resignations. More recent session rosters are generally more reliable for “current” composition, while election-night reports are useful for understanding what voters decided initially — the discrepancy signals intervening developments rather than simple reporting error [1] [3].
4. What could cause seats to shift between projection and session roster
Seats can change between projection and session for several factual reasons: post-election recounts or certification adjustments, candidates withdrawing, special-election outcomes, appointment to other offices, or party-switching by members. The legal certification process in California can alter margins when close races are resolved, and legislative membership listings for a session incorporate any changes that occur during the interregnum. The presence of both 62–18 and 60–20 counts suggests at least a pair of seats were treated differently in disparate sources because of timing or subsequent candidate changes [1] [2] [3].
5. How partisan messaging shapes the numbers you see
Political actors use differing tallies strategically. A November projection of 62 Democrats emphasizes momentum and narrative of dominance immediately after the election; later rosters listing 60 Democrats are framed by institutional actors and neutral compendia to show the legislature as it will operate. Advocates aiming to preserve a supermajority highlight the larger figure, while opposition groups or electoral strategists focusing on vulnerability cite the smaller number and identify districts targeted for flips. Recognizing these incentives explains why media, parties, and reference sites emphasize different counts [1] [4].
6. Bottom line for readers wanting a single current number
For purposes of current legislative control and what will matter in the chamber when lawmakers convene, rely on official 2025 session rosters and reputable legislative trackers that list the Assembly as 60 Democrats, 20 Republicans, and the Senate as 30 Democrats, 10 Republicans [2] [3]. If you want the immediate election outcome and the political narrative from November 2024, note the projection that Democrats were expected to hold 62 seats in the Assembly — but treat that as an early count that was superseded by session rosters and post-election adjustments [1] [3].
7. What to watch next — why small changes still matter
Even a difference of two seats matters because California has rules about supermajority thresholds for specific votes and because narrow margins shape committee control, calendar scheduling, and legislative bargaining. Monitoring certified rosters and official Secretary of State updates around convening dates will capture the final status; meanwhile, analysts and parties will continue using both figures when arguing about political mandate and strategy. For immediate accuracy about “current breakdown,” use the session roster numbers while noting the earlier projection’s role in election-day narrative [2] [1].