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How did turnout in the 2025 California special election compare to the 2020 presidential election in California?
Executive Summary
Turnout in the November 2025 California special election appears meaningfully lower than the record-setting 2020 presidential turnout, but final official totals for 2025 were not available at the time of reporting and remain subject to canvass and certification. Contemporary reporting around November 5, 2025 describes strong, unusually high participation for an off‑year special election — with preliminary tallies of over 8 million ballots and suggestions the final number could climb further — but these figures still fall well short of the 17.8 million ballots cast in California in 2020 (70.88% participation) and the definitive comparison hinges on the finalized 2025 total [1] [2] [3].
1. Why analysts say turnout felt unusually high — and why that doesn’t equal 2020 levels
Contemporaneous media and analyst commentary emphasized unusually robust engagement for an odd‑year special election, with reports of long lines and vote centers busy throughout election day on November 5, 2025; commentators attributed heightened interest to national politics and ballot Proposition 50 energizing voters [1] [3]. Those same accounts, however, stopped short of declaring parity with 2020 because the 2025 totals cited in reporting were pre‑certification provisional counts — publications noted over 8 million ballots tallied and speculation the final count “could be over 12 million” but did not provide a certified figure [1]. By contrast, the 2020 presidential election figure is documented and sizable: California recorded 17,785,151 ballots cast, or roughly 70.88% participation, a historic high driven by universal mail‑ballot policies and pandemic conditions [2].
2. Official data status: why we can’t yet declare a final head‑to‑head
State election sources and news outlets flagged that 2025 results were unofficial and subject to canvass, with California’s certification deadline set for December 12, 2025; official turnout percentages were listed as “TBD” in some official dashboards at the time of reporting [4] [5]. That procedural reality matters because preliminary tallies can shift as late‑arriving mail ballots and verification processes are completed, potentially adding or subtracting several hundred thousand votes. Analysts and election officials therefore emphasized caution: while on‑the‑ground indicators and media tallies signaled much higher-than-usual special‑election engagement, those signals cannot substitute for the final certified turnout totals needed to produce a precise numerical comparison to 2020 [4] [6].
3. The concrete numbers we do have: 2020’s established baseline versus 2025’s provisional range
The best established baseline is the 2020 general election where California recorded 17.785 million ballots and about 70.9% turnout, a figure cited in official participation reports compiled after that election [2] [7]. For November 2025, multiple news pieces reported provisional counts exceeding 8 million ballots and commentary suggesting totals could rise substantially as canvassing continued, but none provided a final certified turnout percentage comparable to the 2020 statistic [1] [3]. Taking the provisional 8‑million figure at face value shows 2025 falling well below 2020’s total ballots; even optimistic projections “over 12 million” would still be substantially less than the 17.8 million cast in the presidential year [1] [2].
4. Competing interpretations and political framing to watch
Media outlets and political actors framed the 2025 turnout in different ways: some cast it as a surprising voter mobilization in an off‑cycle contest, a sign Democrats had momentum and that opposition to national figures (notably President Trump, per some analysts) mobilized voters [1]. Others stressed that special elections historically attract lower turnout than presidential years and that comparing an odd‑year special to a pandemic‑era presidential election is an imperfect apples‑to‑oranges exercise; officials and data portals repeatedly noted the provisional status of counts to temper premature claims [3] [4]. Readers should note these agendas: news outlets emphasized mobilization narratives, while official sources emphasized procedural caveats [1] [4].
5. Bottom line: provisional evidence points to much lower turnout than 2020, but final data will confirm the margin
Current, contemporaneous reporting from early November 2025 documents robust special‑election participation that exceeded typical off‑year levels, yet the only fully certified comparator — the 2020 turnout of 17.8 million ballots (70.88%) — remains far above the provisional 2025 tallies reported at the time [1] [2]. Because California’s official canvass and certification process was still underway and dashboard entries listed turnout as TBD, the definitive numerical comparison requires the certified 2025 turnout; until certification, the responsible conclusion is that 2025 was notably active for a special election but did not reach the scale of the 2020 presidential turnout based on available provisional counts and historical baselines [4] [2].