Who are the top Democratic contenders in California's 2026 governor primary polls?
Executive summary
Current polling and reporting show a crowded Democratic field for California’s 2026 governor’s primary with former Rep. Katie Porter repeatedly named as the leading Democrat in multiple public polls (e.g., 18% in an Emerson poll), while several other Democrats — including Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer — are running or considered notable contenders (Emerson poll, ABC7, New York Times) [1] [2] [3]. Polls remain volatile: large undecided shares and hypothetical tests (notably if Kamala Harris had run) dramatically reorder support, so “top contenders” depend on which survey, sample and moment you cite [4] [1].
1. Porter as the early front‑runner — but with limited margins
Multiple published polls identify Katie Porter as the top Democrat in the current matchups: an Emerson College poll showed Porter leading the open primary with 18% overall and designated her as the top Democrat in that survey [1]. Emerson’s earlier hypothetical testing found Porter rising to frontrunner status among Democrats if Kamala Harris did not run, jumping from 13% to 21% among Democrats in one question [4]. Those numbers are meaningful for name‑recognition, but the polls also show very large undecided portions and narrow percentages across many candidates, meaning Porter’s lead is modest and unstable [1] [4].
2. Other Democrats in the mix — experienced names and new cash
News coverage and candidate lists show a range of Democrats seen as significant: former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, ex‑Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Rep. Eric Swalwell, and billionaire Tom Steyer have all been identified as contenders or entrants into the Democratic field [2] [5] [3]. Reporting emphasizes that some of these figures bring establishment experience or self‑funding capacity (Steyer) that can rapidly alter polling dynamics once campaigns scale up [3] [6].
3. Hypotheticals reshape the leaderboard — Harris effect
Polling that included former Vice President Kamala Harris as a hypothetical candidate produced drastically different results: one Emerson survey found Harris would capture roughly half of Democratic primary voters (about 49% of Democrats) in a hypothetical test, with Porter far behind, illustrating how a single high‑profile entry would reconfigure the Democratic pecking order [4] [7]. With Harris publicly not running, pollsters and outlets stress the race is “wide open,” which explains divergent top lists across different surveys [4] [8].
4. Poll variation and the undecided problem
Across the available polling snapshots, sizable shares of respondents report being undecided or unfamiliar with candidates; the Emerson release itself reports a plurality undecided in some toplines and other polls show no single candidate above the low‑teens [1] [9]. Independent aggregators note frequent changes and small samples for subgroup questions, underscoring that “top contender” labels reflect early name recognition rather than settled voter choice [1] [10].
5. Republican competition and the top‑two system complicate interpretation
Several polls cited by news outlets find Republicans (Steve Hilton, Chad Bianco and others) polling competitively in the all‑party top‑two primary, raising the real possibility that two Republicans could advance if Democratic votes splinter — a scenario discussed by analysts and reported in Newsweek and other outlets [11] [12] [13]. That makes being a “top Democratic contender” not only about leading fellow Democrats but about consolidating enough support to survive a crowded, open primary [12] [13].
6. What the sources don’t say or cannot resolve
Available sources do not provide a single, up‑to‑date polling average listing the current top Democratic vote shares across all major pollsters; they offer snapshot polls, candidate announcements and hypothetical tests that yield different leaders depending on question wording and samples (not found in current reporting). Detailed subgroup breakdowns, field dates, and how campaign activity since each poll’s fieldwork might have shifted sentiment are only partially reported in the releases cited [1] [4].
7. Bottom line for readers tracking the primary
At present, Katie Porter is the most frequently cited early Democratic frontrunner in public polls, but the race remains fluid: a high‑profile entrant (e.g., Kamala Harris had she run), late self‑funded entrants like Tom Steyer, or consolidation around another seasoned Democrat could rapidly change standings. Polls show low absolute shares per candidate and large undecided blocs, so “top contenders” are best treated as provisional snapshots tied to particular surveys rather than definitive hierarchies [1] [4] [3].
Sources cited: Emerson College polling, The Hill/Emerson releases, Newsweek, ABC7, New York Times, CalMatters and reporting summarized above [1] [4] [11] [2] [3] [8] [10].