Which Republican candidates are leading in early 2026 California governor primary surveys?
Executive summary
Recent public polling shows Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton among the highest‑polling GOP contenders in early surveys for California’s June 2026 open gubernatorial primary: Emerson found Hilton at 12% and Bianco at 7% in August 2025 (Katie Porter led overall at 18%) [1]. A large Berkeley IGS poll in October/November showed Bianco at about 13% and that 44% of voters remained undecided, highlighting a volatile field where no candidate consistently exceeds the mid‑teens [2] [3].
1. Who the Republican names are and how they place in polls
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton are repeatedly identified in reporting and polls as the leading Republican figures in the crowded 2026 California governor contest: Emerson’s August 2025 survey put Hilton at 12% and Bianco at 7% (with Porter leading overall) [1]. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released in November showed Bianco with roughly 13% support among registered voters, the highest single figure for a Republican in that large survey [2]. News organizations such as the AP and Newsweek also name Bianco and Hilton as the GOP hopefuls most likely to break through the Democratic field [4] [5].
2. The broader polling landscape: fragmentation and undecided voters
Multiple polls find the race fragmented with a large undecided pool; one recent poll cited by CalMatters and others found 44% of voters had no preference and no candidate over 15% [3]. Emerson’s polls show a plurality of voters undecided in some releases and place a Democrat, Katie Porter, as the overall leader while Republicans trail behind in single digits to low teens [1] [6]. The high undecided share explains why short‑term leads for any Republican can be unstable [3] [2].
3. Why Republicans can appear competitive despite state partisan lean
Analysts note California’s unique open (top‑two) primary and a large, divided Democratic field can produce scenarios where a unified or consolidated Republican emerges into the top two, even in a heavily Democratic state. Reporters point to the split Democratic vote and the visibility of Bianco (as a pro‑Trump sheriff) and Hilton (a conservative commentator) as factors that have allowed Republicans to register near the top in some polls [4] [5]. Emerson’s methodology and Berkeley IGS’s large sample both capture that dynamic: Republicans can “lead the pack” in certain snapshots while the overall electorate remains tilted toward Democrats [1] [2].
4. How to read poll numbers: methodology and timing matter
Emerson’s August poll surveyed 1,000 active registered voters (credibility interval ±3 points) and reported different top figures when subgroups were analyzed [1]. Berkeley IGS surveyed over 8,000 registered voters in late October, producing a higher‑precision snapshot that showed Bianco at 13% and a 44% undecided rate [2]. Different sponsors, question wording and timing — and large undecided pools — mean small percentage differences between candidates are within margins of error and volatile [1] [2].
5. Competing perspectives and implicit agendas in coverage
Newsweek’s item framed Bianco as “narrowly leading” based on a poll paid for by a Democratic candidate, a fact that suggests a potential interest in shaping narratives [5]. CalMatters and AP focus on structural reasons Republicans can be competitive (split Democratic field) and highlight the uncertainty in a wide open race [3] [4]. Readers should note poll sponsors and story placement: campaign‑commissioned polls can be used tactically, while large, academically run surveys (Berkeley IGS) tend to emphasize undecideds and sample scale [2] [5].
6. What’s missing or uncertain in available reporting
Available sources do not mention consistent statewide polling after November 2025 that crystallizes a long‑term GOP frontrunner or shows which two candidates are locked into the top‑two November contest (not found in current reporting). Campaign resources, fundraising trajectories and evolving endorsements — critical to projecting which Republican might survive the primary — are not fully detailed in the cited polls [1] [2].
7. Bottom line for readers tracking the GOP lane
As of the latest public polls in fall 2025, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton are the Republican names most frequently leading early surveys, but no GOP candidate has a commanding, durable lead; undecided voters and a crowded Democratic field make the race fluid [1] [2] [4]. Treat single‑poll “leads” as provisional: methodology, sponsor and timing all shape snapshots that can change quickly as campaigns, messaging and fundraising evolve [1] [5].