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Which California congressional districts have the highest voter turnout?
Executive Summary
California data show high voter turnout clustered in smaller, wealthier or rural counties such as Marin, Sierra, Alpine, Plumas and Nevada in 2022, but existing sources do not present a ready-made ranked list of congressional districts by turnout — county data must be mapped into district lines to produce that list. The available analyses identify broad patterns: some northern and suburban districts delivered the highest participation in recent cycles, while many lower-income, more diverse districts underperform; converting county turnout into district turnout requires precinct-level aggregation [1] [2] [3].
1. Why nobody hands you a neat “top districts” list — the mapping problem that hides the truth
The official statewide reports provide turnout by county and vote totals by precinct and contest, not by congressional district, so identifying the congressional districts with the highest turnout requires aggregating precinct-level returns into the current district map. California’s Statewide Statement of Vote and county participation reports list registered voters and votes cast by county and precinct but do not publish a direct district ranking, meaning researchers must allocate precincts to district boundaries and compute weighted turnout percentages [1] [2]. This is why sources repeatedly stop at county-level lists (e.g., Marin and Sierra at the top) and urge additional calculation to convert county numbers into district-level rates; the underlying data exist but require processing to answer the user’s question precisely [2].
2. Which counties led turnout in recent general elections — proxies for high-turnout districts
In the November 8, 2022 general election, Marin, Sierra, Alpine, Plumas and Nevada counties recorded the highest turnout rates among counties, with Marin and Sierra exceeding roughly 71% turnout of registered voters and several mountain/rural counties above 62–69% [1]. Because several of these counties are small and lie within or across a single congressional district, districts that encompass these counties are strong candidates for being among the highest-turnout districts. However, county-level leaders do not necessarily translate one-to-one into district leaders: many high-turnout urban or suburban precincts are distributed into multiple districts, and some districts combine high- and low-turnout counties, diluting district-level turnout [1] [2].
3. What independent analysts found when they did the district work — turnout ranges and who shows up
Analysts who computed turnout within California’s redrawn districts for 2020 and 2022 found wide variation: eligible-voter turnout ranged roughly from the low 15% range in the 2022 primary to over 80% in the 2020 general across districts, with general-election district turnout spanning approximately 49.5% to 82.0% in published summaries [3]. Those studies also document consistent patterns: wealthier, whiter suburban and small-rural districts tended to be near the top of turnout distributions, while lower-income and more racially diverse districts tended to be near the bottom. The Center for Inclusive Democracy’s district-level work shows these patterns, emphasizing that aggregate district turnout disparities are substantial and persistent [3] [4].
4. Who is underrepresented at the ballot box — demographic drivers of low district turnout
Multiple analyses indicate that Latino and Asian eligible voters turned out at lower rates than the general population in many districts, and poorer districts consistently show lower participation than richer ones. Studies of competitive and redrawn districts found the share of eligible Asian-American and Latino voters who actually voted lagged the district averages, producing turnout gaps that alter the effective electorate composition in those districts [3] [5]. Coverage of turnout geography also notes lower participation in California’s Central Valley and other inland regions; mobilization efforts target these gaps because the resulting district-level turnout shortfalls are consequential for representation and campaign strategy [6] [4].
5. How to produce an authoritative ranked list of high-turnout congressional districts today
To produce a definitive list of California congressional districts with the highest turnout, the correct method is to aggregate precinct-level vote and registration totals into the current congressional map and compute turnout percentages. The necessary raw data are available in the Statewide Statement of Vote and county participation reports; researchers must map precinct polygons or identifiers into district assignments and weight by registered voters or eligible population to compute either registered-voter turnout or eligible-voter turnout [1] [2]. Several research groups have already performed versions of this calculation for specific cycles (e.g., 2020 general and 2022 primary) and produced district ranges and tables; consulting those processed datasets yields the quickest answer, whereas doing the precinct aggregation from the Statement of Vote yields the most authoritative, reproducible ranking [3] [2].
6. Bottom line: what we can say now and what's still missing
Based on county-level official returns, districts that include Marin, Sierra, Alpine, Plumas and Nevada counties are prime candidates for top turnout, and independent district analyses place some northern and suburban districts near the top of turnout distributions, with general-election district turnout ranging widely from roughly 49% to 82% in prior cycles [1] [3]. What remains missing from the sources provided is a single, up-to-date, precinct-aggregated ranking of current congressional districts for the specific election of interest; producing that ranking requires the aggregation steps described above or quoting a recent dataset from a civic-technology or academic group that has already done the work [2] [3].