Fact check: What percent of California's voters are reliably Democrat?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available analyses, there is no direct answer to the specific question about what percentage of California's voters are "reliably Democrat." However, several key data points provide relevant context:

Voter Registration Data:

• 46.2% of registered voters in California are Democrats, representing nearly half of all registered voters, with this share having increased slightly since 2020 ^[1]

Electoral Performance:

• In the 2024 general election, Vice President Kamala Harris received 58.5% of all votes cast in California, while President Donald Trump received 38.3% ^[2]

Political Control:

• Only 9 of California's 53 U.S. House districts are held by Republicans, indicating overwhelming Democratic representation ^[3]
• Democrats hold a supermajority in both houses of the state Legislature ^[4]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal several important gaps in addressing the original question:

Definition Ambiguity:

The term "reliably Democrat" is not clearly defined in any source. This could mean registered Democrats, consistent Democratic voters, or voters who support Democratic candidates regardless of party registration.

Voting Pattern Shifts:

One analysis mentions that Democratic voters in California "have drifted to the right" and discusses "shifts in voting patterns," suggesting that reliability may be changing over time ^{[5] [2]}.

Turnout Considerations:

California's voter turnout was lower in 2024 compared to 2020 ^[6], which could affect the reliability calculations depending on which voters actually participate in elections.

Independent and Republican Voters:

The analyses don't provide comprehensive data on how independent voters (who make up a significant portion of California's electorate) vote, or what percentage of the remaining ~54% of non-Democratic registered voters might still vote for Democratic candidates.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself does not contain misinformation, but it assumes a clear definition of "reliably Democrat" that doesn't exist in the available data. The question implies there should be a straightforward percentage answer when the reality is more complex.

Key limitations in the available data:

• No sources provide longitudinal voting behavior analysis that would determine true "reliability"
• Registration data (46.2% Democrat) differs significantly from electoral performance (58.5% for Harris), suggesting many non-Democrats vote for Democratic candidates
• The analyses focus more on recent political shifts and redistricting efforts rather than long-term voter reliability patterns

The question would be better framed as asking for multiple metrics: registered Democrats, typical Democratic vote share, and voting consistency over time across different types of elections.