Fact check: Could California survive on it's own without federal assistance nor paying federal taxes?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the analyses provided, California could potentially survive economically without federal assistance or paying federal taxes, but would face significant challenges. California possesses the world's 4th largest economy with a GDP surpassing $4.3 trillion ^[1], making it comparable to Canada in terms of economic size and population ^[2].

Prof. Henry Brady from UC Berkeley notes that California's taxes paid to and benefits received from the federal government are roughly equal, suggesting the state could survive financially on its own ^[3]. However, Brady emphasizes that California's economy is highly integrated with the rest of the United States, making secession problematic ^[3].

The "Calexit" movement, led by Marcus Ruiz Evans, has gained momentum and is working toward a 2028 ballot measure for California independence ^{[4] [3]}. Constitutional expert David A. Carrillo argues that secession is both impossible and unconstitutional, calling the proposed ballot measure a waste of public resources ^[5].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question omits several critical challenges that an independent California would face:

• Loss of federal defense and infrastructure funding, along with complications regarding trade, borders, water rights, airspace, and currency ^[1]
• Governance gaps that would need to be addressed, including defense and social security systems ^[2]
• Current federal dependencies that demonstrate California's reliance on federal support, including housing assistance programs that serve thousands of Californians ^{[6] [7]}
• Homelessness and affordable housing challenges that currently require both state and federal resources to address ^[8]

The analyses reveal conflicting expert opinions: while some like Prof. Brady believe California could sustain itself economically, others like Erin Gil disagree with secession and believe California is better off remaining part of the United States ^[3].

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question presents a simplified economic scenario that doesn't account for the complex realities of governance and interstate dependencies. The phrasing suggests independence could be achieved merely by stopping federal tax payments and assistance, when the analyses show that:

• Constitutional and legal barriers make secession extremely difficult or impossible ^[5]
• Economic integration with the rest of the United States creates dependencies that extend beyond simple tax calculations ^[3]
• Federal support systems currently serve millions of Californians in areas like housing assistance, which would need alternative solutions ^{[6] [7]}

The question also fails to acknowledge the growing political tensions between California and the federal government that have fueled the secession movement ^[5], suggesting the inquiry may be motivated by current political conflicts rather than genuine economic analysis.