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Fact check: What percentage of California voters are registered as independents?
Executive Summary
California’s most recent official voter-registration counts show that roughly 22–22.6% of registered voters are listed as No Party Preference (NPP), the category commonly equated with “independents.” State reports dated February 10, 2025 and September 5, 2025 place the NPP share at about 22.34% and 22.55% respectively, reflecting a modest year-to-year fluctuation rather than the larger levels reported in earlier years [1] [2]. This analysis synthesizes those official figures with historical context and independent polling to show that while NPP remains a sizable bloc, its share has been stable or slightly declining from peaks recorded in the late 2010s [3] [4].
1. Why the 22% Figure Is the Best Current Answer — and What “Independent” Means in California
The California Secretary of State’s registration reports are the authoritative source for party labels among registered voters; they list No Party Preference (NPP) as the formal category most analysts call “independent.” The February 10, 2025 registration snapshot recorded 22.34% NPP, and a later September 5–26, 2025 compilation put NPP at 22.55%, indicating a very narrow change over that interval and supporting 22% as the current, rounded figure [1] [2]. No Party Preference is an administrative label: NPP voters decline to register with a recognized party, but they are not a monolithic ideological group. Some NPP registrants consistently vote with one major party, others split tickets, and some are habitual nonvoters. The Secretary of State data measure registration status, not voting behavior, which is why political scientists and pollsters often combine registration data with surveys to understand NPP voters’ preferences [5].
2. How Recent Trends Compare to the Late 2010s Peak — The Rise and Plateau of NPP
Historical data show NPP rose through the 2010s, reaching about 25.5% by the June 2018 primary, when it surpassed Republicans as the second-largest registration category. That peak reflected long-term disaffection with party labels and the growth of unaffiliated registration drives [3]. Since that high-water mark, the NPP share has flattened or edged down in several reports: a 2024 survey-style profile cited about 22.3%, noting a small decline from 23.7% in 2021 [4]. The Secretary of State’s 2025 snapshots showing 22.34% and 22.55% confirm a return to a slightly lower, but still substantial, plateau compared with the 2018 peak. In short, NPP climbed dramatically earlier this decade and has since stabilized in the low-20s.
3. Why Different Reports Show Slightly Different Percentages — Timing, Definitions, and Rounding
Discrepancies between claims arise from differences in reporting dates, rounding conventions, and whether sources cite registration rolls or survey estimates. The Secretary of State’s registration report is updated periodically and shows exact registration counts and percentages as of the report date; the February 10, 2025 report gave 22.34% and a September 2025 compilation gave 22.55% [1] [2]. Independent organizations like the Public Policy Institute of California produce voter and party profiles based on registration data and polls; those outputs can report 22.3% or cite earlier peaks such as 25.5% from 2018 [4] [3]. All cited figures are consistent once you map them to their dates and data sources, so the apparent disagreement is mostly about timing and framing rather than fundamental contradiction.
4. Who Benefits from Emphasizing Higher or Lower NPP Numbers — Political Context and Potential Agendas
Different actors emphasize certain numbers to support political narratives: parties and interest groups may highlight a larger NPP share to argue for volatility and persuadable voters, while others underscore a stable low-20s share to suggest predictable partisan coalitions. For example, citing the 25.5% 2018 figure can amplify the impression of a long-term insurgent unaffiliated electorate [3]. In contrast, citing 22.3–22.6% from 2024–2025 underscores that the NPP bloc is substantial but not rapidly expanding [4] [2]. These selective emphases reflect differing agendas—mobilization claims, fundraising appeals, or strategic targeting—rather than contradictions in the underlying registration data.
5. Bottom line with evidence and how to cite the number going forward
The clearest, evidence-based conclusion: about 22% of California’s registered voters are No Party Preference (NPP) as of 2024–2025 official counts, with Secretary of State reports recording 22.34% on February 10, 2025 and 22.55% on September 5, 2025 [1] [2]. Use the Secretary of State registration snapshots for authoritative citations when precision and date-stamping matter; use longitudinal analyses from research groups like PPIC for trend context [4] [3]. When quoting the figure, include the report date to avoid confusion between the late-2010s peak and the current low-20s plateau [5] [3].