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Fact check: What percentage of California voters identify as independent?
Executive Summary
California voters who register without a major party label — officially called No Party Preference (NPP) or commonly described as “independent” — make up roughly 22% to 22.3% of registered voters based on state registration records and recent statewide surveys. The California Secretary of State’s February 2025 registration report lists 22.3% NPP while a March 2025 PPIC survey rounds that share to 22%, and analysts note a small decline from prior cycles, framing independents as a sizable but not rapidly growing bloc [1] [2].
1. What the official numbers say — a clear, consistent picture from registration data
The California Secretary of State’s Report of Registration from February 2025 records 22.3% of registered voters as No Party Preference, identifying them as the largest single nonmajor-party category in the state’s rolls; that figure represented a slight dip of 0.2 percentage points from 2023. This official count is a concrete administrative snapshot of party-affiliation labels on the voter rolls and is the baseline most analysts use to quantify “independents” in California. The state’s registration report is the primary source for how many Californians formally choose not to register with a major party [1].
2. Survey context — independent share aligns with but slightly differs from administrative data
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) statewide polling in March 2025 reported that the share of eligible Californians registered as independents slipped to about 22%, a decline of nearly two points since the prior general election. Surveys like PPIC’s measure either registered voters or eligible populations and can differ slightly from the Secretary of State’s administrative counts due to sampling, question wording, or the distinction between eligible and registered voters. The PPIC finding reinforces the low-22% range while adding context about recent movement and potential volatility [2].
3. Turnout and political influence — independence doesn’t equal turnout or uniform behavior
Analyses of 2024 turnout show that independent and minor-party voter turnout fell sharply, with one assessment noting an 11.8 percentage-point decline for these groups, which affects how much electoral influence a 22% registration share translates into on election day. Registered independents are a heterogeneous group with varying propensities to vote; declines in turnout can shrink their practical impact even if their registration share remains steady. This distinction between registration presence and voting behavior matters when assessing the political power of independents [3].
4. Who “independents” are — diverse types complicate straightforward labels
Polling and commentary emphasize that “independents” are not monolithic: national and state-level analyses identify multiple subtypes of independents with distinct policy preferences and partisan leanings. A CNN-based discussion referenced the existence of at least five kinds of independents, illustrating that the label covers a broad range from consistent nonpartisans to leaners who effectively vote like Democrats or Republicans. Recognizing that diversity is crucial for interpreting what a 22% figure actually implies for elections and policy debates [4].
5. Media and commentary — different framings but little contradiction on the headline number
State-focused commentators, such as those discussing shifts among younger voters or regional centrist movements, do not dispute the basic ~22% NPP statistic but instead focus on trends, turnout, and conversion between parties. Opinion pieces highlight changing demographics and strategic implications but provide no competing administrative figure; they underscore the policy and political importance of shifts within and around the independent cohort rather than the headline percentage itself [5] [6] [7].
6. Advocacy organizations — mission statements matter, not headline numbers
Groups that promote independent voter engagement, such as the Independent Voter Project, emphasize nonpartisan reforms and re-engagement of non-affiliated voters but do not provide a competing official percentage in the provided material. Advocacy groups’ agendas center on changing electoral rules or mobilizing independents, which can shape interpretations of registration shares and turnout; their aims should be viewed as advocacy-driven context rather than substitute data for the Secretary of State’s registry [8].
7. Bottom line and caveats — stable headline, important nuances for interpretation
The simplest factual answer is that about 22% to 22.3% of California’s registered voters identify as independent/No Party Preference as of early 2025, a stable but slightly declining share by recent measures. Important caveats include differences between registration and turnout, the heterogeneity of independents, and the role of advocacy narratives that stress mobilization or reform; analysts should use the Secretary of State’s registration data as the authoritative baseline while consulting survey and turnout analyses to understand political dynamics [1] [2] [3] [4].